There have been many controversial Braves in the Braves fandom over the decades, but the man now carrying the mantle is almost certainly Sean Murphy. Murphy’s signature style of bursting and big saves, acquired in an out-of-nowhere prior to the 2023 season when the Braves were seemingly at catcher, made for a stellar debut season defensively in Atlanta, but also led to some sour-grape feelings, as William Contreras had a defensive turnaround and breakout in Milwaukee in 2023 and hit a new gear offensively in 2024, and has generally been hyper-productive since the trade.
Meanwhile, Murphy endured an injury-plagued and xwOBA-undersized doomed 2024 before starting 2025 on the injured list again. Ultimately, he had another mediocre offensive year before succumbing to a hip injury that he had apparently been trying to work through throughout his entire tenure in Atlanta, including his stellar 2023.
The trade that sent Murphy to Atlanta was a wild one. The Braves sent prospect pitchers Kyle Muller, Royber Salnias and Freddy Tarnok, and backup catcher Manny Pina, to Oakland. Meanwhile, Milwaukee added speedster prospect Esteury Ruiz, who the Athletics thought would price their pick for Murphy (for whatever reason). Because they sent Ruiz west, the Brewers got Contreras and the less-than-promising Justin Yeager from the Braves.
About two weeks after the deal, and before he had appeared in any kind of game in his new team’s uniform, the Braves and Murphy connected on an extension that guaranteed $73 million over six years, including a club option for 2029 without a buyout. The extension paid Murphy $4 million in 2023, $9 million in 2024 and $15 million annually thereafter, including in the option year. The deal secured three of Murphy’s remaining so-called free agency years (four if the option were picked up).
What were the expectations?
Murphy is the Controversial Brave de l’année (that’s “of the year,” instead of “of the day” for those of you who don’t want to enter that into Google Translate), and expectations are one of the three main reasons why. (The other two are the fact that William Contreras was traded away, and the fact that Drake Baldwin is now on the same team, at the same position, and won Rookie of the Year in 2025.)
Let’s put it this way: When the Braves traded for Murphy, he was insanely good: He was coming off a 5.2 fWAR season, had almost two wins of value defensively in each of the previous two seasons, and had a career .342 xwOBA that he was substantially undershooting. At the time the Braves acquired him, Murphy had 10.5 career fWAR and an even 5.0 fWAR per 600 PAs. So when Murphy switched gears when the Braves encouraged him to channel his swinging tendencies and put up another 5.0 fWAR season, this time in just 438 PAs, while Also with a vastly improved .395 xwOBA it was actually a party on the street…
…and then 2024 happened. Murphy didn’t even make opening day due to an oblique injury; he eventually returned in late May but showed decreased bat speed and defensive production. He also vastly underperformed an okay .310 xwOBA (.281 wOBA), so he only collected 0.8 fWAR in 264 PAs.
As a result, predicting Murphy before 2025 has been quite tedious. On the one hand, he was incredibly great when he was healthy, and an injury-riddled season shouldn’t have eaten away so much. On the other hand, I probably discussed Murphy more than any other player with several industry acquaintances ahead of the 2025 season, and the pseudo-consensus I got back was that Murphy looked like a defensive wizard backup catcher rather than a guy you’d want to hit every day. During these discussions I would always bring up his xwOBA, and get the equivalent of a “Yes, but still…” kind of thing, which seemed strange to me, but it is true.
Regardless, even factoring in his different 2024 numbers, Murphy still looked like an above-average 3-4 WAR producer. ZiPS had its point estimate at 3.2 WAR in 417 PAs (that’s 4.6 per 600 PAs) ahead of the 2025 season.
Sigh. This time, Murphy didn’t even wait for Opening Day to get injured, as he suffered a rib fracture during Spring Training. His absence paved the way for Drake Baldwin to become the team’s primary catcher from the start and remain with the team throughout the season en route to Rookie of the Year honors.
Murphy returned in early April and played occasionally as part of a catcher timeshare. He did that very rarely: once in April, and then again when the Braves were virtually out in July. The way his season unfolded offensively was quite bizarre:
While Murphy was never really on fire like he was for several months in 2023, he did quite well, even including a rough June, until falling apart in August. Interestingly, its bat speed, which had been declining from 2023 levels for almost all of 2024, dropped sharply in June but remained low through July before jumping back to 2024 levels as it cratered along the stretch. There’s something to unpack there, but it’s unclear how it all Tetrises together.
The surprising thing about Murphy calling it quits for the season in early September wasn’t that it happened: It was apparently that he’d been dealing with hip issues throughout his entire tenure in Atlanta, and had more or less hidden it from the team until there was essentially no reason not to call it quits with less than a month of games left and no playoff berth in sight. Additionally, there were reports from this offseason that Murphy was engaging the coaching staff and front office and lobbying for a more traditional, full-time catcher role, which seems to be mainly wild given the hip pain. Sure, he did it somehow in 2023, but his drop in bat speed in 2024 may have been a sign that perhaps health-related issues needed to be addressed first. Who knows.
Overall, Murphy finished with 2.0 fWAR in 337 PAs. His xwOBA (.313) was average, as was his wRC+ (97). Where he collected a lot of value was on defense, where he managed another win of value with the help of ignorance in essentially half a season of playing time.
First and foremost the defense. Murphy has been a standout blocker starting in 2021, has consistently been one of the league’s best pitching catchers outside of a 2024 hiccup that may have been related to his oblique issues, and has been an above-average framer for years without the 2024 hiccup aside. He returned to that level of defensive dominance in 2025 and collected a ton of defensive value. It’s pretty amazing that he did it considering his hip was apparently as bad and painful as it was.
Additionally, Murphy’s contact quality rebounded from where it was in 2024 (from an elite .461 xwOBACON in 2023 to a league average of .365 in 2024 to a .401 mark in 2025). His hard-hit pace recovered, his walk rate remained good and he continued to destroy offspeed throws, something he has done throughout his Braves tenure (and honestly makes sense given his swing). He pulled a lot of balls in the air, significantly more in terms of speed than in 2023 or 2024. He also remained quite aggressive, unlike many of his teammates, although this may also have been his downfall, as his contact, for health reasons or otherwise, eventually collapsed, without any bat speed issues.
Despite his offensive season, Murphy had some big games for the team. His biggest was probably July 12th, and honestly it wasn’t a big “game.” It was just a big swing. In fact, Murphy had gone 0-for-3 in a close game until he came up with one out, as the go-ahead run, in the eighth inning in St. Louis, and blam – three-run homer that turned the game. (The Cardinals then tied the game on a wild pitch, but the Braves retook the lead and won in the ninth.)
His other big game came much earlier, when it still seemed like his return might help the team recover from their stupor, as he had a two-homer game against the Rays on April 12. The first home run put the Braves on the board and within one; the second tied the game in the eighth, and the Braves finally won in the ninth.
Most importantly, team culture, personal space, etc. etc. etc. led to Murphy suffering a hip injury for three years. Come on, man, your health is pretty important too. I know that all professional players, even the relatively mild-mannered, background personalities like Murphy’s, have the BOYbut still. Just brutal. Hopefully he will return healthy and with new energy in 2026.
Whether it was for health/pain-related reasons, or something else, Murphy hit some weird issues in 2025 — the biggest one being that he basically lost the ability to fight off pitches. His contact rate on chases was 38 percent – not quite half the league average (58 percent), but he got there. By itself, o-contact doesn’t mean much: Aaron Judge routinely commands terrible o-contact rates, and all kinds of big boppers like Nick Kurtz, Eugenio Suarez, and James Wood arguably benefit from whiffs on things they wouldn’t crush, because those swings don’t turn into weak contact. That said, that kind of structure has never really been Murphy’s game plan, and in particular Murphy’s altered bat speed and possibly his physical limitations beyond 2023 have made it very difficult for him to blatantly combat the sliders and changeups he’s chasing.
Murphy’s worst match is easily because it was just an impact. In a one-run loss to the Phillies on August 30, Murphy grounded into a double play, then grounded into another double play before striking out. All this while facing a southpaw in Cristopher Sanchez. He then got a pinch-hit from Jake Fraley in a tie game in the ninth with two outs, which seems kind of bizarre because maybe Murphy could have gotten one up against Jhoan Duran, but Fraley probably didn’t plan to.
He also had another miserable time against the Phillies on April 9 – he actually reached base in each of his first three PAs, but in the tenth, with the Braves trailing by a run and runners on the corners against Jose Alvarado, he badly missed a 2-2 cutter that drove into him to end the game.
Well, here we are again, trying to predict Sean Murphy. The injury situation makes this all a bit strange, but Murphy is also now subject to something with two of his three most recent seasons either involving massive xwOBA underperformance (2023, 2024) or playing under the influence of injury in a noticeable way (2024, 2025).
Steamer still has Murphy as an above-average contributor, but only on a rate basis: 1.3 WAR in 315 PAs – essentially a replication of his 2025 hitter, but with worse defense (because Steamer always heavily backs defensive standouts or laggards). ZiPS is more optimistic on both fronts, with an estimate of 2.6 WAR in 367 PAs. Both would be helpful, the latter would go a long way toward bringing some chill back to the field discussing Murphy’s talent and/or roster spot.
There’s also outside hope that with the move to a more flexible roster, Murphy can step up a bit and not wear down. But honestly, he hasn’t really been on his feet are as heavy as a Brave anyway, so the bigger concern is whether he’ll be able to recover from his hip pain and turn back the clock to 2023 or sooner.
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