Arthur Hayes: Low Oil Prices Could Cause a Bitcoin Bull Run

Hayes emphasizes that cheaper oil could indirectly boost cryptocurrency by enabling looser fiscal policy and credit growth.

This weekend, US President Donald Trump confirmed that Nicolás Maduro had been seized from Venezuela and that Washington would take control of the country’s oil industry.

The episode has fueled debate in cryptocurrency circles, with BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes arguing that cheaper energy and aggressive credit growth could set the stage for higher digital asset prices.

Trump’s Venezuela move rattles geopolitics, not crypto markets

The news broke on January 3, when US officials said Maduro and his wife had been taken into custody following attacks in Caracas, a development Trump discussed in media appearances later that same day.

He also said the US would be “heavily involved” in Venezuela’s oil sector, a comment that quickly spread among X and trading desks. Despite the shock value, Bitcoin (BTC) barely flinched, falling from just under $91,000 to around $89,000 before stabilizing.

On January 4, as more details emerged, the largest cryptocurrency recovered to a multi-week high of nearly $92,000, adding roughly $3,000 from its post-attack low. Tokens tied to Trump-themed projects also performed better, reflecting a period of speculative interest as traders waited for oil futures to reopen.

On social media, Hayes weighed with a long post that mixed satire with macro views. Theatrics aside, his core point was simple: American politics, especially leading up to the 2026 midterm elections and the 2028 presidential race, are intimately tied to economic conditions. He says keeping gasoline prices low is more important to voters than most policy debates, and control of Venezuela’s supply could help Washington limit energy costs while expanding credit elsewhere.

He believes this could lead to uncontrolled dollar creation because, with oil prices suppressed, there will no longer be any market force to force politicians to “stop printing money.” Hayes said that in such an environment, Bitcoin’s price will immediately rise in response to the expansion of dollar liquidity.

You might also like:

The crypto entrepreneur pointed to his “USD Liquidity Condition Index” as evidence of this historical relationship, stating: “The rise of Bitcoin is a direct result of money printing.” He contrasted this with traditional financial assets such as government bonds, which become less attractive when energy costs are high and volatile.

Why oil and Bitcoin are now closely linked

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up about 1% in one day, almost 7% in the past week, and almost 5% in the past month. The asset traded between $92,000 and $94,600 over the past 24 hours, showing controlled volatility despite the geopolitical noise.

For now, markets appear to be betting that U.S. control of Venezuelan oil will increase supply rather than disrupt it. If this assumption holds, Hayes believes accommodative fiscal policy could continue, increasing risky assets.

However, should crude oil prices rise and bond yields follow suit, the tone could change quickly. Until then, Bitcoin’s calm response suggests traders are less focused on the headlines and more on the liquidity picture behind them.