Drawing lessons from previous top choices
The letter and the Rangers’ subsequent rebuild failed for many reasons, some within their control and some beyond their control. The Rangers had no control over the fact that Kakko – the second pick in 2019 – and Lafreniere – the second pick in 2020 – didn’t turn out like other top picks from different years. The Rangers had the unfortunate luck of finishing second in 2019, one pick behind Jack Hughes, and first in 2020, two picks behind Tim Stutzle.
On a side note, imagine if things were reversed and the Rangers took first overall in 2019 and second overall in 2020?
The way the draft picks turned out was out of their control. But the way they managed all their choices and their development was 100% in their control. Of all the first-round picks (Kakko, Lafreniere, Filip Chytil, Lias Andersson, Vitali Kravtsov, K’Andre Miller and Braden Schneider), Chytil was the only player with more than 50 AHL games, not including Lias and Kravtsov. Miller, Kakko and Lafreniere had a combination zero AHL games in their development.
While natural skills, coaching and roles were factors in their perceived failures as top prospects, not spending time in the AHL was another big factor. This is a big lesson the Rangers learned and it has been applied to Brett Berard, Gabe Perreault and Scott Morrow.
Mind you, not every player needs AHL time. But when it comes to being ready for the NHL, the Rangers are being cautious with Perreault. But are they too cautious?
Strength is important
The problem with Perreault isn’t the skill, it’s the strength. In both of his recalls over the past two seasons, he was taken off the puck too easily. Strength is something that takes time to build in the weight room, not something that can be worked on and learned with playing experience.
The Rangers had a similar problem with Kakko. Although it wasn’t strength related, Kakko had some issues receiving passes on a smaller ice surface. Time in the AHL to adjust would have been a better idea than just throwing him into the NHL as an 18-year-old. That’s just one example from previous top picks.
With Perreault, the Rangers will likely learn from their lessons and be extra careful. Why throw Perreault into the mix of a team with questionable leadership, underperforming top players and the expectation that he is the missing link in the top six? This isn’t fair to him and it sets him up to fail.
Balancing development and NHL needs
If Perreault has a slight build, that won’t make him a contender for the Rangers. There’s no need to rush him, but there’s also a need to get him into the lineup. Again, if the Rangers’ star players don’t do anything, Perreault doesn’t matter.
Argue all you want about the construction of the top six, it doesn’t matter if JT Miller is on a 46-point pace and Lafreniere is on a 43-point pace. Only Panarin, barely on pace for a point per game production, and Vincent Trocheck, at a 64-point pace, are pulling their weight. Mika Zibanejad is on a 62-point pace, the same as last year, which is fine, but certainly not what people were hoping for. Frankly, Zibanejad’s role has changed.
This brings us back to Perreault. If the big four up front can barely pull their weight, what’s the point of throwing Perreault, with a strength problem, into the mix? The lines look good on paper and Perreault is desperately needed in this team, but I don’t mind being cautious.
It is best to let him develop without sacrificing his future. I think we all realize this isn’t the year for the Rangers.
But are the Rangers too cautious with Perreault?
The million dollar question is whether the Rangers are being too cautious. This is a fair question, taking human nature into account.
Let’s take a look back at Chris Drury’s first offseason with the Rangers. The Blueshirts were in dire need of adding to their roster with a little more grit and blue collar-type playing styles. But Drury overcompensated and focused on grit without replacing the skills lost in the lineup. He’s been trying to find that skill ever since.
This is human nature: when you make a mistake, sometimes you overcompensate and the pendulum swings too far the other way. Then you learn from that mistake and find the middle way. Even NHL GMs are sensitive to this. It’s human nature.
The other end of this spectrum is Brennan Othmann, who it’s fair to say never had a real chance with the Rangers last season. Now he’s too far gone to be a real difference maker for the Blueshirts.
So with Perreault, Drury may be overcompensating, learning from previous lessons, but letting the development aspect influence his decisions too much. This approach is painful as Rangers are simply brutal to watch at the moment and have a clear gap in the top six.
In all likelihood, the Rangers are being a little too cautious with Perreault. Strength is clearly a concern, and since that’s not really a skill that can be taught in game situations, the Rangers will have to wait and see. Perreault will be with the Rangers before the end of the season, possibly once they are fully healthy and find some cap space, likely by trading Taylor Raddysh. But for now, it will be a painful Rangers top six as Perreault is the only internal option to fill the gap in the top six.
Until Perreault is recalled, the Rangers will continue to have a bottom-six forward in a top-six role. That’s the best case scenario. The worst-case scenario, of course, is that Perreault either doesn’t pan out (unlikely) or gets rushed and has his confidence destroyed (much more likely). Given the possibilities, I think the choice is clear.
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