AP men’s basketball Top 25: Duke remains No. 1, BYU and Louisville drop out for the first time this season

Duke, Arizona and Michigan remained steady among the top three teams in the Associated Press men’s basketball Top 25 on Monday, remaining off the court for two weeks until Selection Sunday.

The Blue Devils, who moved up to No. 1 last week, received 55 of the 59 first-place votes, while the Wildcats received the other four.

Duke, Arizona and Michigan are all 27-2 and appear to be close to No. 1 when the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket is revealed on March 15. The fourth No. 1 seed remains in question – as evidenced by the movement in the rest of the top 10 this week.

UConn and Florida each moved up two spots to Nos. 4 and 5, respectively, following undefeated weeks with wins in the rankings. The Huskies, who defeated the Gators in a neutral-court game on Dec. 9, might just keep the lead for the final No. 1 seed. But Florida, the defending champion, has the longest active winning streak of any power conference team at nine games.

Elsewhere in the poll, Texas Tech was the biggest gainer of the week, rising six spots from No. 16 to No. 10. And Purdue, after losses to Michigan State and Ohio State, was the biggest decliner, dropping seven spots from No. 8 to No. 15.

BYU and Louisville both fell out of the poll this week for the first time this season. Both had spent time in the top 10 earlier in the campaign, but the Cougars have lost eight of their last 12 and the Cardinals have lost three of four.

Saint Mary’s, which defeated Gonzaga on Saturday, was replaced by Miami (Fla.).

Here’s the full poll, along with the vote from The athletic’CJ Moore:

Others receiving votes: BYU 74, Kentucky 47, Louisville 47, Missouri 40, Wisconsin 27, Clemson 16, Utah State 10, UCF 7, High Point 7, Dayton 5, Villanova 4, Navy 3, NC State 2, TCU 2, Ohio State 1, Santa Clara 1.

Three teams above the rest

Right now, Duke, Michigan and Arizona appear to be in a battle to see who is No. 1 overall. Michigan is No. 1 in every CV rankings on the team sheet and No. 2 at BPI, the NET and KenPom, behind Duke in all three. Duke also has the head-to-head matchup, but if Duke loses another game and Michigan or Arizona win their remaining games, that No. 1 overall seed could still change. As I wrote last week, it could even be a debate if Michigan wins.

UConn ranks fourth overall in resume rankings but ranks between 8 and 10 in quality/prediction systems, while Florida, fifth in average resume rankings, ranks fourth among KenPom, Torvik and the NET. UConn does have the head-to-head win, but it will be interesting to see how the selection committee handles that. I also have the Huskies ahead of the Gators, but I would listen to an argument for putting Florida as the No. 1 seed. Since starting 5-4, including losses to Arizona, at Duke and UConn, the Gators are the best team in college hoops according to Torvik.

Teams on the rise

My biggest gainers this week were Florida, Michigan State and Texas Tech, all moving up four spots. The team sheets get messy in that 6-14 range. One thing I like to do is look at bad losses, which I qualify as losing against a team that is unlikely to make the NCAA Tournament, and quality wins, which I qualify as against a team currently in my Top 25. Here’s how those teams stack up with quality wins first/bad losses second:

• Houston (2 quality wins/0 bad losses)
• Michigan State (5/1)
• Illinois (4/0)
• Nebraska (3/0)
• Texas Tech (4/1)
• Iowa State (4/1.5 – TCU is in the bubble and gets the 0.5 treatment)
• Purdue (4/1 – one of Indiana and Ohio State probably won’t make a field, so combined that’s one)
• Alabama (5/0)
• Kansas (5/2)

Houston is at the top because it still ranks favorably in predictive metrics and its five losses are to all teams in my Top 25. Nebraska has a similar resume, but doesn’t rank as highly in the predictive metrics. Michigan State advanced with the win at Purdue (extra points for a road win). Texas Tech may have the best collection of wins – Duke, Houston, Arizona and Iowa State – but Purdue and Illinois both have the head-to-head advantage. Alabama is gaining momentum with five wins against my Top 25, but Purdue won along the way there and ranks higher in all predictive rankings by 5-10 spots. Kansas is just one in that group with two losses against teams unlikely to make the field. But you could take the data and mix these teams in just about any order and be justified. That’s why the No. 2 and No. 3 seed lines still feel wide open. The committee will have to do a lot of work to figure out how to rank these teams.

The back of the poll

It was difficult this week to find teams that could finish in the last few places. I finally considered Miami (Ohio) because the resume numbers continue to rise from going undefeated. The RedHawks rank No. 21 in record strength and 32 in wins above bubble, but at WAB that’s below my bottom three of Kentucky (24), Wisconsin (27) and Louisville (26). Miami (Ohio) still ranks very low in the quality/predictive metrics, at just 87 at KenPom. And the RedHawks have yet to play a Quad 1 game and have just one Quad 2 win.

Wisconsin, Kentucky and Louisville are all tied for the 16th most Q1 wins out of six. Louisville’s only losses have come in Q1, it is 4-0 in Q2 and is ranked 19th by KenPom. I put Kentucky and Wisconsin ahead of the Cards because they both have three Q1A wins, either against a top 15 opponent at home, a top 25 opponent at neutral or a top 40 opponent on the road. Louisville is 0-8 in those games.

Ranked vs. ranked games this week

• No. 6 Iowa State at No. 2 Arizona: Monday, 9:00 PM ET
• No. 24 Vanderbilt at No. 23 Tennessee: Saturday, 2:00 PM ET
• No. 17 North Carolina at No. 1 Duke: Saturday, 6:30 PM ET
• No. 8 Michigan State at No. 3 Michigan: Sunday, 5:30 PM ET