Analyst: Bitcoin repeats the pattern behind S&P’s 200% rally

Analysts compare BTC’s “flat correction” and deep decline to the S&P’s 61% crash before the explosive bull run.

A crypto analyst has suggested that Bitcoin (BTC) is following a historical pattern last seen in the S&P 500 before a massive 200% jump.

This comparison points to a potential, but not yet certain, start to a period of exponential growth for the world’s leading cryptocurrency.

A historical blueprint for a running of the bulls

In a detailed analysis, CrediBULL Crypto pulled There are parallels between Bitcoin’s current price action and the behavior of the S&P 500 between 2000 and 2008. The expert noted that both markets experienced mid-cycle tops, characterized by longer periods of consolidation without a dramatic peak, so-called “flat corrections,” before the next major upward move began.

After these phases, the S&P 500 saw a 61% decline, while Bitcoin saw a 76% decline, before each began its final, explosive rally. CrediBULL now says that BTC is at a stage similar to where the S&P 500 was just before it went parabolic, which was followed by a 200% price increase.

“On the SPX, just before going parabolic, we saw a 37% correction to the downside. That was immediately followed by new ATH and a rally of over 200% from the lows to where we are today,” the technician wrote.

This optimistic outlook comes at a time when the OG crypto is trying to find stability and is currently trading around $92,000 after a rough month that saw it fall more than 14%. The comparison counters the bearish sentiment prevailing in the market, suggesting that the recent downturn could be a typical, albeit sharp, correction within a larger bull cycle rather than its end.

CrediBULL emphasized that a short-term upward trendline break does not mean the overall market structure is broken, and warned that traders who exited the S&P 500 with a similar technical break missed the huge rally that followed.

For Bitcoin, the trader highlighted $74,000 as the line that really matters, telling a follower that the “trendline is not relevant – 74k is.” Until then, them to see BTC is ‘hugging’ its main trendline instead of starting the vertical part of the move.

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Market sentiment and divergent views

The analyst community is divided on BTC’s immediate future. While the historical pattern provides a hopeful framework, other experts have pointed to persistent headwinds. One of them, Axel Bitblaze, noted that Bitcoin’s recent decline is quite similar to a pattern from early 2025 that ended in a final sharp shakeout. According to him, rising Japanese bond yields and liquidity problems at smaller US banks could serve as a potential catalyst for a new downturn.

The market is also witnessing a flight from retail investors, with data from November 19 showing that small Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP wallets have been reducing their holdings, a behavior that, ironically, has often occurred just before the market recovery.

Ultimately, the debate centers on whether Bitcoin is completing a final bearish shakeout or on the cusp of a historic breakout. CrediBULL argues that because the cryptocurrency is a younger and faster-moving asset, it could replicate the S&P’s parabolic move in a much shorter time frame.