Analyst: Bitcoin drop near $101,700 could confirm new bear market

Bitcoin’s recent drop below $104,000 saw the market enter “extreme fear” territory for the first time since April.

Bitcoin (BTC) made a major bearish shift this past weekend, with the price falling below $104,000 on Friday, October 17, after days of zigzagging between $116,000 and $108,000.

The drop put the market in “extreme fear” for the first time since April, leading many observers to speculate on how long the bull cycle will last, with one warning that more losses are on the way.

A crucial line in the sand

In his ‘Big Sunday Report’, crypto trader Dr. Profit told his more than 439,000 followers on

He wrote that he had been “spotting” that area “to add shorts and sell” since late August, noting that BTC “reached 126k, 1k more than my maximum high scenario of 125k” before falling on October 10, when it fell as low as $101,000 on some trading platforms.

Citing market psychology as central, the analyst clearly wrote the following:

“Markets are driven by greed. Right now I’ve rarely seen as much greed in the market as I am right now, and I’m talking about both the bear and bullish sides.”

His setup depends on a specific technical threshold: a decisive break below $101,700.

“By breaking below $101,700, Bitcoin will break below its magical bull market line, which would ultimately confirm a bear market and silence those bulls once and for all!” wrote Dr. Profit.

The post also talks about liquidity mechanisms as a cause, saying that recent late-entry shorts, liquidations near $116,500, and the overcrowded positioning of short-term holders have made the price structure weak.

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Furthermore, the analyst used the short-term holder’s realized price of $112,500 to show that many recent buyers had lost money and could put more pressure on the market if BTC were to drop another 5-10%.

Sentiment, macro events and market structure

This weekend’s price action reflected that caution. At the time of writing, CoinGecko data showed the leading cryptocurrency trading around $110,700, which is up 3.5% in the past 24 hours, but down by the same amount in the past seven days. The 14-day drop is almost 10.6%, and the 30-day drop is smaller, at 4.1%.

Doctor Profit’s warnings come as broader sentiment has turned sour. On October 17, reports indicated that the Fear & Greed Index was at its lowest point since April and that approximately $900 billion in market value had been lost in recent days. Some analysts say the medium-term uptrend is still strong if key supports hold, while others say liquidity operations tied to ETFs and leveraged positions open the market to big changes in direction.