Analyst: Bitcoin dip looks like metal wave in 2020 – big rally possible in 2026

Gold and silver are once again reaching new highs and are seen as a liquidity signal rather than a risk warning.

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $87,000 at the end of December 2025, after falling more than 30% from its October peak above $126,000, while gold and silver continue to post record gains.

However, some analysts argue that this difference is not a warning sign, but a known setup that previously led to one of Bitcoin’s strongest rallies.

According to this view, the current lull in BTC reflects mid-2020, when precious metals first recovered after a major market shock, before capital turned to crypto months later with dramatic results.

Gold and silver lead again while Bitcoin consolidates

In a post shared on X on December 29, Bull Theory be to striking similarities between the current market and the aftermath of the March 2020 crash.

At the time, high central bank liquidity flowed first into gold and silver, with gold rising from around $1,450 to $2,075 in August 2020, while silver rose from around $12 to $29. For its part, Bitcoin hovered around $9,000 to $12,000 for almost five months before breaking through to $64,800 in the second quarter of 2021, a 440% price increase from August 2020 levels.

Fast forward to 2025, and precious metals are once again setting the pace. Gold recently hit a new all-time high around $4,550, while silver climbed to a new peak below $84 an hour ago after an explosive last quarter. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is still below $90,000 as it tries to shake off the fallout from the October 10 liquidation that wiped out more than $19 billion in leveraged positions.

Bull Theory argued that the metals that move first historically signal that risky assets are next, not that the cycle is coming to an end. The analyst also noted that unlike 2020, 2026 could see multiple headwinds, including continued rate cuts, renewed liquidity injections, looser rules on bank leverage, clearer crypto regulation, and broader ETF access beyond Bitcoin.

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“Bitcoin rebounded last cycle mainly due to liquidity. This time, liquidity and structure come together,” Bull Theory said.

Price action and what it could mean for 2026

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at just under $90,000, up about 2% on the day but down almost 6% this year. Over the past week, price action has been tight, moving between the high $86,000s and just above $90,000, with low momentum over shorter time frames. Monthly performance remains slightly negative, reflecting hesitation rather than panic.

This muted move is in stark contrast to the broader metals market, where gold is up about 75% this year and silver is up more than 170%. This gap has pushed the ratios of BTC to gold and BTC to silver to multi-year lows, fueling the argument that Bitcoin looks undervalued relatively speaking.

If the 2020 playbook repeats itself and the metals stagnate while liquidity rotates, Bull Theory estimates that Bitcoin could more than quadruple by 2026.

“The current sideways action in BTC is not the start of the bear market, but rather the calm before the storm,” the market watcher noted.