Hello there, Razzball friend!
In case you haven’t heard, spring games started yesterday, which means fantasy baseball pitcher injuries will officially move from offseason theory to daily monitoring in 2026. Radar guns are back. Someone is already ‘a little sore, but doing well’.
Within a month, one of your targeted or drafted pitchers will likely be on the IL. Not because this year is cursed (actually, I have my doubts), but because this is how the painful pitching game works.
Last week we talked about preseason injury situations worth keeping an eye on. The goal was not to panic. It was pattern recognition.
This week is about why pitcher injuries feel unpredictable every season and why they may be a little more predictable than we care to admit.
Projection systems give us clean numbers:
- 160 turns.
- 3.42 ERA.
- 195 strikeouts.
These figures assume best-case scenarios and continued progress.
The results of spring training keep us grounded.
Pitcher injuries rarely start with dramatic headlines. They start with small signals. When Shane Bieber picked up his $16 million option from the Blue Jays, it seemed like a strange contract story. In reality, it was probably also a health signal.
That was of course out of season. In season the warning signals are quieter and more familiar. They look like:
- A bullpen was pushed back.
- A live BP was skipped.
- Speed lower than normal.
- A ramp-up that lags behind the rest of the rotation.
Those details feel small. They’re not.
If you’re a ball expert or, more analytically, compare Grey’s list of top starting pitchers, Razzball/Steamer pitcher projections and JKJ’s Bullpen Chart to current injury news, you can already see shortened runways.
It looks like Shane Bieber will be making an appearance in Dunedin soon. Regardless of how long that takes, it’s good news. Notes on this and what the #BlueJays rotation looks like early: www.mlb.com/bluejays/new…
— Keegan Matheson (@keeganmatheson.bsky.social) 2026-02-20T01:01:46.117Z
- The aforementioned Shane Bieber came into camp with a controlled throwing progression.
- Cam Schlittler has been dealing with back inflammation and a lat issue that could slow his build, potentially costing him an extra bullpen or two.
- Although Justin Steele is in a lengthy recovery, he shared an updated timeline with a target return in May or June.
None of this is catastrophic.
But each situation guarantees or introduces the possibility of a shorter preparation time. For example, if a starter builds up 60 pitches on opening day instead of 80, that could translate into fewer innings in April.
Speed trends
One radar value is noise. A pattern in outings is information.
Recovery rhythm: If Spencer Strider scores 98 one outing, but remains 95 the next in his second season, that doesn’t automatically indicate an injury, but it could be a signal that recovery between outings is still stabilizing. In a year after surgery, consistency is more important than peak velocity. You are not keeping track of the highest reading. You keep track of whether he can repeat it consistently.
Baseline erosion: If Corbin Burnes is several times below his usual baseline, that reduces his margin for error. Even if results look good early, continued speed shifts reduce the cushioning that makes a pitcher stable.
We often hear about speed drops when they form craters, but they don’t have to crater to matter. Even small, consistent declines (2 to 3 km/h) are often an indication of fatigue, risk of injury or mechanical problems (source). While a huge fall is an obvious emergency, a small loss of speed is often a leading indicator that a thrower is losing strength, is overtrained or dealing with hidden physical problems.
In summary, persistent changes tell you more than a single news flash.
Skipped performances
Pain is just a polite way of saying the arm isn’t listening. We hate the word because it’s vague, but in spring training, a missed day is a stolen opportunity.
Look at Justin Verlander in 2024. He called it a “hiccup,” but with all the other arms in camp stretching into the third and fourth innings, Verlander was stuck in the backfields. He wasn’t just ‘behind schedule’. He lost his way. By the time the calendar reached April, the calculation simply didn’t add up. He didn’t have the miles in his arm to survive a real match.
A skipped start is not a footnote. It is a signal that the arm is being negotiated rather than trusted. Capacity is not a statistic. It is the lifeblood of a season.
Protection is not neutral
Pitchers get wrapped in bubble wrap, and for good reason. Teams now value peak performances over heavy innings.
Whether it’s DeGrom’s scheduled rest days or Bieber’s slow start in April, early exits are now team policy. We saw it last year with Spencer Strider. Even when he looked great, the Braves kept him under 130 innings. In today’s game you don’t draw a horse. Instead, you set up a highly managed asset. The ceiling is lower than before.
Quick check-in for pitching injuries in February
February has already reshaped the board.
Pablo López and Reese Olson are out for the year. Burnes, Houck, Schwellenbach and Waldrep open on the 60-day IL.
Pablo López has a torn elbow ligament and “surgery is looming,” Twins general manager Jeremy Zoll said. If surgery is required, López would miss the entire season.
— Aaron Gleeman (@aarongleeman.bsky.social) 2026-02-17T16:41:14.993Z
While Gerrit Cole will finally face hitters, the wait is still months away. Snell and Bieber have limited builds that will likely cost them the start in April, and Josh Hader’s shoulder makes him questionable for Opening Day.
This is not a projection. This is a significant volume that has already been lost.
A slightly awkward take
Fantasy managers often ignore the “silent” injuries. It’s hope that makes us human, right? We panic when a pitcher has a sore forearm in February, but we ignore the guy who threw 190 stressful innings with a dying fastball in September.
One risk is a headline. The other is a ticking time bomb. We confuse heavy workloads with sustainability, when we should be asking what they cost. A speed drop of 2 km/h towards the end of the season is not just fatigue. They are structural debts. If you want to get an edge, treat last year’s late-season fades and workload spikes as serious warning signs. When you think about this, think of Logan Gilbert, Walker Buehler or Hunter Greene.
The only real strategy
Doing:
- Note the gas tank. If a guy throws three starts slowly in a row, believe what you see.
- Check attendance. If a guy is “scheduled” to pitch but keeps finding reasons to stay in the dugout, take the hint.
- Be realistic. Stop expecting 200 innings from someone who has never hit 150. There are rare exceptions.
- Buy the backup. Your rotation will break. If you don’t draw depth, you draw a loss. This is usually where I screw up. So maybe I should take my own advice.
Don’t:
- Freak out about ‘Spring Soreness’. It’s February; everyone is stiff. Only worry if they stop throwing completely.
- Trust a ‘clean camp’. Just because he feels good in March doesn’t mean his arm won’t fall off in July. I have to say this is a disclaimer.
- Ignore the ‘gassed’ look. If he looked tired last year, he probably still does.
- Confuse a sweater with workload. Just because he’s on the roster doesn’t mean the team trusts him to go six innings.
You are drafting innings. May the rest follow.
Last week was about identifying situations worth monitoring. This week is about why monitoring works better than predicting. We don’t have to predict the future.
I’m Keelin, your weekly reminder that injuries don’t follow timelines. You can find me on Bluesky at keelin12ft.bsky.social.
Note: This column focuses on injury situations that have a meaningful impact on fantasy baseball decisions. It is not a complete injury ledger or a prediction of exact timelines. Teams are often vague, information changes quickly, and this is best seen as a snapshot of the state of play, with the goal of helping fantasy managers establish context rather than panic.
#Ambulance #Chasers #Pitchers #Health #Dont