Good day to you, sovereign citizens of the Razzball nation.
I’ve been thinking about injuries again. Especially spring injuries.
Spring injuries are frustrating because most of them don’t feel like they can take action. Usually no one is excluded. Timelines are vague. Every update sounds encouraging. And yet this is precisely the moment when uncertainty about the trip begins to pile up like 50 cars on the Michigan section of the highway in January.
In my last post, Injury Risk Reality Check for Draft Season, we talked about injury risk as something to do to manage instead of prevent. I never thought I’d be thinking about Alfred Kinsey while writing a fantasy baseball article, but here we are: Injury risk is a spectrum and not a binary. This week is about where that gray area starts to appear before it turns into box score surprises or early IL stints.
We’re not panicking or removing names from the draft boards (YET), but we are looking for places where risk is quietly expanding. Missed reps. Slow ascents. Late or persistent procedures. Situations where ‘having to be ready’ does not always mean being fully ready.
Known long-term (actual or referral) injuries are not the issue here. This is about uncertainty that spring training can still resolve. For example, Shane Bieber’s timeline currently depends on availability and rehab checkpoints, rather than usage questions that spring reps can now meaningfully clarify. Hopefully we’ll learn more about the Biebs soon.
Let’s get in.
Injuries that are not yet a problem
Francisco Lindor (NYM, SS): Elbow debridement surgery
Coming in at No. 10 on Grey’s Top 10 for 2026 Fantasy Baseball, Francisco Lindor underwent right elbow debridement surgery in October 2025. He underwent a similar procedure on the same elbow in 2023.
While the offseason surgery hasn’t sparked much public concern, Lindor recently returned to the news when the MLBPA announced he will not compete for Team Puerto Rico in the 2026 World Baseball Classic due to WBC insurance restrictions. It is expected that Lindor will still participate in spring training.
Francisco Lindor will not play for Team Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic after undergoing a cleaning procedure on his right elbow this season.
— Roger Cormier (@yayroger.bsky.social) 2026-01-31T04:23:21.911Z
I understand that the WBC insurance situation itself is not a fantasy issue, but it is useful context. It’s easy to read an insurance disclaimer and assume something is “wrong” with Lindor. In reality, it mainly shows how cautiously recent operations are handled when someone else bears the financial risk.
This still doesn’t mean Lindor is injured, expected to miss MLB time or unsafe to field. MLB teams are comfortable managing him because they control his workload, ramp-up and recovery in a way the WBC cannot. Insurers do not project performance or role. They think about financial risks and worst outcomes. They probably still have flashbacks to Edwin Díaz’s WBC celebration.
This is also a good time to remember that availability and readiness are not the same thing. Even though he’s a go for spring training, teams are often cautious about throwing volume and recovery from elbow work. That could quietly impact early-season preparation.
Takeaway: Same benefit, with a slightly wider range of early season results. Tune in to headlines and pay attention to workload.
Austin Riley (ATL, 3B): Core muscle surgery
In August 2025, Austin Riley underwent core surgery after straining his lower abdominal muscles twice in quick succession.
Riley is currently ranked No. 6 on Grey’s Top 20 Fantasy Baseball Third Basemen of 2026, listed in the “Potentially Rancid Mayo” category, which feels both tasty and accurate.
Core surgeries usually recover well, but rotational injuries can linger. If the core is off, power is often the first thing to drop, followed by some inconsistency in contact. In 2025, it’s fair to think Riley relied more on timing and solid contact than full swings, a trade-off that could push BABIP higher (.337) while quietly limiting home run output.
Teams also tend to let hitters go back to full speed after core work, which can delay early work at the plate. The bigger picture is still encouraging. Riley looks like a hitter with a stable BABIP floor and power who should bounce back as his core fully recovers, even if the batting average gives back some ground along the way. Not a bad trade.
Takeaway: Same skill set, with a little more uncertainty about early season power.
Zack Wheeler (PHI, SP): Thoracic outlet-related surgery
Zack Wheeler is ranked No. 60 on Gray’s list of starting pitchers and is a big question mark. He is due to throw again after dealing with a blood clot related to thoracic outlet syndrome, which is encouraging and reduces the real downside. Yet, thoracic outlet recovery is typically less linear than in most pitching injuries. Even when things are going in the right direction, results can vary depending on how a pitcher responds to workload, recovery and sustained intensity over time.
Therefore, the Phillies, and YOU, have every reason to make an early decision. The number of pitches, the rest between starts and how quickly Wheeler is allowed to rotate lineups will matter more in March than the radar gun readings. This situation is less about whether he will pitch and more about how aggressive he is when the games start to count.
Takeaway: There is a stairway to heaven, but it is closed by work pressure and recovery. You portray uncertainty.
Masyn Winn (STL, SS): Knee surgery (meniscus)
Winn comfortably checks into Grey’s Top 20 shortstops for 2026, and the Cardinals sounded optimistic about his recovery from knee surgery. Winn himself has said he plans to run more now that the knee is healthy, and that’s exactly what you want to hear.
The problem is that knee procedures often look good on paper before speed and defensive reps fully return. Before you know it, someone’s leg flies off. For fantasy purposes, risk is usually reflected in running volume and durability, not batting average or power. Early caution in the field or less aggressive decisions on the bases would be more important than his opening day status.
In other words, the optimism is encouraging, but as I have repeated many times, the usage has yet to become visible.
Takeaway: The speed is the question.
Isaac Paredes (HOU, 3B): Hamstring injury
Isaac Paredes isn’t far behind Austin Riley at No. 12 on Grey’s Top 20 third basemen for fantasy baseball in 2026.
Hamstring injuries are classic everyday situations that quietly eat up reps without forcing an IL stint. Even mild strains can lead to fewer plays in the field, a slower slope, or early conservative baserunning. In Paredes’ case, his hamstring injury was serious enough to put surgery on the table. The Astros don’t have much incentive to push things in March, especially after his contract situation is sorted out. The priority is that he is right, and not in a hurry.
This type of injury rarely makes headlines, but can still impact early season usage if the injury lingers just enough.
Takeaway: Don’t assume you’ll be working at full speed right away.
Joe Musgrove (SDP, SP): Tommy John Surgery
Joe Musgrove? That’s a name I haven’t heard in a fortnight.
As MarmosDad mentioned in his preseason starting pitcher post, Musgrove is leaning toward being done early, with the Padres indicating no strict innings limit is planned until 2026, at least as things stand now. He is also over a year removed from Tommy John surgery. That said, ‘no limit’ does not mean ‘no management’. The Padres still have control over how aggressively they deploy him early, and that’s the uncertainty worth monitoring. The tone around Musgrove has been encouraging, but the focus remains on building him up rather than squeezing every possible inning out of April.
@973TheFanSD tweetedJoe Musgrove says he has felt great over the past 2-3 weeks, both in terms of his health, as well as his speed and pitch form, and is very excited about spring training.
— Parents Twitter Bot (@padres-bot.bsky.social) 31-01-2026T20:10:54.668133+00:00
Like Wheeler, this is less about whether Musgrove can get the ball and more about how aggressively the Padres let him go once the games start counting. The number of pitches, the rest between starts and whether skipped innings are creeping in will tell you more than just a reading from a hot water radar gun.
Takeaway: The cap may be gone, but early season use is still important.
Spring training cues that matter
When tracking these situations in the spring, focus on how players are used, not how they look in the highlights. Ask yourself:
Does this hitter play on back-to-back days?
That usually indicates that the team is comfortable with recovery, and not just allowing him to appear.
Is this pitcher working on normal rest?
Rest patterns show whether the team is confident in its recovery between starts, which is a better indicator of early-season workload than March speed readings.
Does the batter play the field and run hard?
Complete defensive reps and aggressive baserunning are signs that a player is getting closer to normal usage.
Does the number of pitches increase steadily from outing to outing?
A gradual build-up to a full start is more important than one sharp inning.
What language does the team use in updates?
“No setbacks” suggests the plan has not changed. “We will be careful” usually means that boundaries are already baked in.
Is this a soft tissue problem?
Obliques, hamstrings and calves usually live in the gray area between healthy and unavailable, so they deserve extra attention.
Separating thoughts before we panic later
This is not (yet) intended to deter talented players, and it is not about predicting setbacks. Injury risk is part of the deal. The benefit comes from identifying uncertainty before draft day, rather than rushing as soon as roles or workloads change in April.
Next time we’ll delve deeper into pitch injuries and data, which already has me in a cold sweat. By then, spring training will start, and with any luck, there won’t be much new chaos to talk about.
I’m Keelin, your weekly reminder that injuries don’t follow timelines. You can find me on Bluesky at keelin12ft.bsky.social.
Note: This column focuses on injury situations that have a meaningful impact on fantasy baseball decisions. It is not a complete injury ledger or a prediction of exact timelines. Teams are often vague, information changes quickly, and this is best seen as a snapshot of the state of play, with the goal of helping fantasy managers establish context rather than panic.
#Ambulance #Chasers #Preseason #injury #situations #worth #monitoring