All the jobs that no longer exist – a wealth of common sense

Heading into the 19th century, approximately 70-80% of all jobs in the industrial world came from agriculture.

Most people were farmers.

In 1870, more than half of all men owned or worked on farms.

Today, less than 1% of the U.S. population works in agriculture.

Innovation and technology made farming more efficient, so people moved to factory jobs and eventually to white-collar work.

There have been many jobs that have been wiped out by technology over the years.

Telephone exchange operators.

There used to be people who lit all the gas lanterns on the street by hand. They were replaced by electricity.

Before alarm clocks, people called knockers would go around tapping on windows to wake people up.

Ice cutters and ice deliverers were replaced by refrigeration.

Also milk delivery.

Before computers existed, NASA used human computers that literally did calculations by hand.

Elevator operators are no longer needed.

Typists and file clerks were replaced by word processors and computers.

In the past, it was someone’s job to set up the bowling pins by hand.

Blacksmiths, coachmen, and grooms were replaced as automobiles took over from horses as the primary mode of transportation. Now we needed car mechanics and taxi drivers.

Assembly line workers were replaced in developing countries by robots and cheaper labor. Many travel agencies went bankrupt when travel booking sites came online. Toll booth collectors were replaced by machines or automated toll collection.

There used to be video store clerks who were forced to rewind the videos you forgot to rewind (and charge you for their trouble).

I could continue.

All of these job moves and more have occurred, but the unemployment rate has averaged less than 6% over the past 80 years:

The economy changed. The workforce changed. Jobs changed. And things kept growing.

I am not trying to minimize the disruption caused by these technological improvements. A painful transition occurred as farmers moved from agricultural work in rural areas to jobs in urban factories. Many of the industrial Rust Belt cities became hollowed out as labor moved abroad for cheaper labor.

There will certainly be a painful transition for many white-collar roles as AI is integrated into the workflow. I’m sure there are jobs that will be impacted by AI that we’re not even thinking about right now.

But new roles will also emerge. AI will make so many people better in their current roles. That will lead to more opportunities.

For many employees and companies, AI will lead to more customers. Lawyers will be able to file more lawsuits. Tax advisors will be able to file more taxes. Financial advisors will be able to handle more clients. When bottlenecks are removed, output increases.

In a recent one podcastMarc Andreessen discussed the fact that tasks at work evolve over time, but that jobs can also persist through those changes.

He uses the historical example of a manager who used to have a secretary to type up memos, messages and the like. Now executives type their own messages and send them via email. This is more productive, but the secretary still has a job. They simply perform new tasks. That’s what he thinks AI will do for most workers.

Tasks themselves are not necessarily solutions to problems. Most companies are founded to solve a problem. People will still be required to do this.

One of the biggest unintended consequences of the pandemic was the explosion of business applications:

I think AI could send this trend into hyperdrive. The tools available will make it easier than ever to learn/build/code/grow a business faster than ever before.

There are currently a lot of questions and no clear answers when it comes to AI. Certain jobs are likely to disappear. New jobs will be created. Employees who know how to use AI properly will be better at their current role. People who don’t will likely be left behind or forced to adapt.

I don’t know what’s going to happen, but I’m not in the camp of utopia (total abundance, no one has to work) or dystopia (everyone is unemployed and broke). I’m somewhere in the middle.

All I know is that people are resilient, the economy is dynamic and this new technology will produce surprising results, just like all the previous ones.

Michael and I talked all about the potential impact of AI in this week’s Animal Spirits video:



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Further reading:
Advantages and disadvantages of artificial intelligence

Here’s what I’ve been reading lately:

Books: