As a gold miner Alamos Gold (TSX: AGI) is preparing for releasing the results of 2025 from the second quarter on July 30, of course investors ask: is the time now to buy, sell or keep these Canadian gold shares? Shares in AGI have so far increased an impressive 34% year, which is a reflection of optimism about the future, but recent operational bumps justify a further look. Let us break down the most important factors that influence the investment decisions on this TSX gold stock.
Alamos Gold Stocks in the short term hiccups: Costs and sales volumes
Alamos Gold faced the headwind in the first quarter (Q1 2025). While gold prices remained strong, the income fell. Why? Mainly as a result of lower sales volumes of the gold – the company only sold 117,583 Ounces compared to 132,849 Ounces in Q1 2024, which represents 94% of production versus 97% a year earlier. Management largely attributes this to timing, which suggests that the unsold us will be realized in future quarters. However, this gap between production and sales deserves research in the Q2 results.
The worsening of the sales problem was a considerable jump in all-in sustainable costs (AISC), an important metric that recorded the total costs to produce an ounce of gold. Alamos Gold’s AISC rose to US $ 1,805 per ounce during the first quarter, an increase of US $ 1,265 per ounce a year ago. This peak under crowds per share, in addition to a marginal increase in the number of outstanding shares.
A specific challenge came from the Mulatos -my in Mexico, a large income contribution. Production there fell by 51% year after year in the first quarter due to planned lower stack. Management expects successive improvement until 2025 as higher figures are processed.
A compelling long -term vision
Despite identified challenges in the short term, Alamos explained an exceptionally bullish long -term roadmap in his major update of 23 June: the Island Gold District Base Case Life of Mine Plan. This plan integrates the recently taken over Magino Mine (July 2024) with the existing Island Gold Operation in Ontario, with one of Canada’s largest, cheapest and most profitable gold mines.
The figures seem fascinating. The combined asset can have a huge business scale, with an average AISC during the first 12 years of production around US $ 915 per ounce of 19% compared to the guidelines of management for 2025, combined with strong economy as benefits after taxes for the company, measured in net present value (NPV).
It is crucial that, given very good gold prices, this growth can be financed internally. Alamos closed off in the first quarter with a robust $ 789.5 million in total liquidity and expects to generate a strong free cash flow, even during the financing of his projects, with a considerable boost expected post-expansion voltooi in 2026, 2027 and 2028.
The management also emphasizes an obligation to reduce costs due to operational improvements and the phase 3+ expansion, which switches from trucks to a more efficient assystem, which considerably reduces the use of the diesel and ventilation needs. This expansion has already been financed or committed more than 76%, so that the project risks considerably.
Alamos Gold Stock Valuation and the investment decision in July
There is currently potential value in Alamos Gold stock. The TSX Gold shares trades at a forward price win (P/E) ratio of 18.5 and a P/E-TO growth (PIN) Ratio of 0.9, which suggests that shares are reasonably appreciated compared to the expected profit growth potential of the mining share.
Buy, sell or hold?
July presents a classic “wait -and -see” moment for Alamos Gold Stock Investors. The concerns in the short term-the income from the first quarter, Miss, High Aisc and the performance of Mulatos-Being and must be tackled in the upcoming report of the second quarter and the profit call. Not showing improvement of sales volumes or cost control would be negative.
However, the long -term investment thesis, dramatically enhanced by the Transformative Island Gold District Plan, is exceptionally strong. The path to become a larger, considerably cheaper producer with decades of my life is clear and largely financed.
That is why the income of 30 July seems wise for existing shareholders. Look for a confirmation that productivity has been refurbished and sign that initiatives for cost control retain. For new investors, the upcoming income creates a potential access point, but the most important rating potential is probably on the successful implementation of the expansion plans from next year and a long -awaited fourth quarter Expansion study.
The story for AGI shares is less around July and more about the powerful growth motor that ignited in 2026 and then. Keep this TSX gold stock on your watchmist.
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