Jam-packed New Year’s Day of College Football Playoff action includes a quarterfinal between the Alabama Crimson Tide and Indiana Hoosiers in the Rose Bowl. Indiana is currently where Alabama is used to: No. 1 in the country. The Crimson Tide may be down this season, but they can’t be discounted after ousting SEC rival Texas A&M in the opening round of the CFP.
Let’s take a look at my picks between Alabama and Indiana.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Indiana Hoosiers Odds
Moneyline: Alabama -130 / Indiana +110
Spread: Alabama +7 (-110) / Indiana -7 (-110)
Total: Over 48 (-1100) / Under 48 (-108)
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Indiana Hoosiers best bet #1: Under 48 (-110)
Despite coming back from 17 points down to beat Texas A&M, questions remain about Alabama’s offense. Running back Jam Miller has been banged up, and even when healthy, it’s been a struggle for the Crimson Tide to run the ball with much success. Now the Tide must face an Indiana defense that ranks third nationally in rushing success rate allowed and second in opponent EPA per rush. While both offenses can put up points, it feels like every defense should have an edge in this matchup. The Hoosiers have one of the best defenses in the country, which was especially evident against Oregon and Ohio State. Their ability to dominate up front should once again shine through, at the expense of a ‘Bama’ offensive line that falls somewhere between decent and mediocre.
Assuming the Tide’s ground game is somewhat stagnant on Thursday, there will be a lot of pressure on QB Ty Simpson. However, Simpson’s production has dipped since a red-hot first half of the 2025 campaign — and isn’t expected to improve in a matchup with Indiana’s defense. On the other side of the ball, the Crimson Tide’s D is solid. Nick Saban may be gone, but defensive coordinator Kane Womack is one of the better defensive minds in the country. If Ohio State limits Fernando Mendoza and company to 13 points in the Big Ten Championship, Alabama could hold them to at least the mid-20s.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Indiana Hoosiers best player prop bet: Kaelon Black Over 58.5 rushing yards (-114)
Black and Roman Hemby share carry for the Hoosiers, so it’s hard to say who will have the hot hand on New Year’s Day. However, chances are the volume will be high for both players. Even with the Heisman Trophy-winning Mendoza at QB, running the ball may be Indiana’s best option. After all, Alabama ranks 10th nationally against the pass (168.4 yards allowed per play). The Crimson Tide are also respectable against the run, although 120.6 yards per play allowed on 3.7 yards per carry are by no means dominant numbers.
Through the first eight games of this season, Black has had more than 10 carries only twice — and more than 11 only once. In four of the last five games, the Virginia Beach native has rushed at least 12 times. He has amassed 67 yards or more in two straight games and 64 yards or more in five of the last seven. This stretch includes a 110-yard effort against Maryland on Nov. 1. Additionally, Black has scored five of his seven touchdowns in the past seven games, so it’s clear the Indiana coaching staff has complete confidence in him – including in the red zone. With a modest distance quota (10 less than Hemby’s), black has a good value to surpass this.
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