Padres president of baseball operations AJ Preller met with reporters (including Dennis Lin of The Athletic And Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune) on Tuesday afternoon. While the fallout from Mike Shildt’s resignation was the main topic, Preller also addressed the Friars’ uncertain rotation through 2026.
San Diego’s front office leader acknowledged that the starting staff is “a clear need” as they deal with free agent losses Dylan stops And Michael King. The strike is a lock to reject a qualifying offer and it has long seemed likely he would sign elsewhere. King will decline his end of a mutual option in favor of a $3.75 million buyout. It appears the Padres will also give him a QO, and there’s a good chance he turns it down, even after an injury-riddled season.
The Padres could try to bring back King. He was on track for a nine-figure deal until he suffered a nerve injury in his throwing shoulder. That seemed like a minor problem at first, but it ended up costing him almost three months. King missed a few more weeks in August with a knee infection and didn’t look as sharp in September. The Padres didn’t fully trust him in the postseason and used him out of the bullpen in the Wild Card Series. It’s possible that the difficult outcome could see King move from a five- or six-year asking price to a two- or three-year deal with opt-outs. That could be more in the Padres’ financial wheelhouse than a $125-150 million commitment would have been had King stayed healthy.
For now, the Padres have to operate as if Cease and King aren’t coming back. That leaves Nick Pivetta as the clear No. 1 starter. Joe Musgrove should be on track for Opening Day after undergoing Tommy John surgery during last year’s postseason. However, the Padres were able to keep an eye on his innings total.
Yu Darvish has three years left on his contract but has a 5.38 earned run average entering his age-39 season. Randy Vasquez made 26 starts with an ERA under 4.00 without missing bats. Collect deadline JP Sears was shocked after five MLB starts after the trade. He does not plan to be signed at a projected arbitration salary of $3.5 million. The Padres should decline their $5 million option Kyle Hartwhile Matt Waldron is on the roster bubble after struggling in Triple-A.
It’s a thin group after the Padres made trade Ryan Bergert And Stephen Kolek to the Royals for catcher Freddy Fermin on the deadline. That’s true even assuming Darvish returns. Kevin Acee of The Union-Tribune wrote earlier this month that Darvish has not stated with certainty that he will play out his full contract, which runs through the end of the 2028 season. The veteran right wing missed most of the first half due to elbow inflammation and just posted the worst numbers of his career.
Preller didn’t provide many details, but noted he had some conversations with Darvish early in the offseason. “We will continue to talk to him in the coming weeks to see what it all means for him,” he added. It doesn’t appear Darvish has made a decision, but that’s another question hanging over an already light start at five.
It’s a familiar position for the Friars, who seemingly enter every offseason with one or two rotation holes and uncertainty about their ability to add near-term financial commitments. Two years ago this was reflected in the building of the Juan Soto circle back around King and make a Spring Training deal to land Cease from the White Sox. They waited on the market last offseason to add Pivetta to a heavily delayed four-year contract as a free agent.
The Padres have also had quite a bit of success converting relievers back into starting pitchers. They gave Seth Lugo that opportunity after spending years as a reliever with the Mets. King flourished in San Diego after starting a rotation experiment with the Yankees. Kolek obviously didn’t have the impact of Lugo or King, but he also found enough success as a starter to spark the Royals’ interest in talks about Fermin.
That history led to speculation about the Padres’ donations Mason Miller another rotation look once San Diego landed him from the A’s. Miller has been arguably the most dominant reliever in the MLB over the past two seasons. He had limited rotation experience — 15 starts in the minors and six starts as a rookie — before the A’s moved him to the bullpen.
That was not so much a matter of talent as of sustainability. Miller battled shoulder and elbow injuries in the minors and lost most of his rookie season in 2023 due to forearm tightness. He has remained healthy as a reliever, aside from a three-week absence in ’24, when he broke his non-throwing hand (reportedly after punching a table in frustration after a bad outing).
Adrian Morejon has been a full-time reliever for almost four seasons. He also moved to relief due to health issues, but had been an excellent starting pitcher. He had multiple shoulder and elbow injuries, one of which required Tommy John surgery in 2021. Morejon has been healthy for consecutive seasons and has developed into one of the game’s best relievers. He is coming off his first All-Star season and just fired 73 2/3 innings of 2.08 ERA ball in 75 appearances.
Preller didn’t promise roles for either pitcher, but left open the possibility of eliminating one or both again. “We’ll be sure to hear Mason’s thoughts and what he thinks is best. We’ll see how the offseason goes roster-wise. Then we have clear direction for him about what that looks like.he said of Miller. Preller expressed a similar sentiment about Morejon.”(He’s) a lefty who throws three-plus pitches with command and the ability to use him in different places in the game. I think this will be a conversation as we go into it, similar to Mason, about what that looks like here for next year.”
Moving either pitcher into the rotation would obviously deal a significant blow to a bullpen that was the best in the MLB over the last two months of the season. It already seems likely that the Padres will lose closer Robert Suarezwho will opt out of the remaining two years and $16 million on his deal and could get more than $15 million annually on a two-year contract in free agency.
Miller would be the heir apparent in the ninth inning if he doesn’t start. If they move Miller into the rotation, Jeremiah Estrada will likely be the favorite to close. Jason Adam could also be in the mix, but he’s coming back from a season-ending quad fracture. David Morgan And Bradgley Rodriguez showed late-inning potential as rookies and could work their way into a leverage role if they were able to throw enough strikes.
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