That memory is still in the share price today. It also explains why people talk about Air Canada stock as a lesson, and not just a ticker. You can love flying and still get burned as a shareholder. So, is it worth the risk now, or should buyer still beware?
Looking back
Air Canada operates the country’s largest airline, with routes throughout Canada, the United States and major international hubs. It also leans on Aeroplan, freight and vacation packages to diversify revenues. Still, the stock is trading more like a recovery story than a completed blue chip. In late 2025, the price hovered around the high teens to low 20s, while shares were trading above $50 in early 2020. This gap shapes expectations and keeps investors demanding proof.
Since just before the pandemic, performance has been frustrating for long-term owners. Travel volumes recovered, but Air Canada shares never reached their previous peak. The market continues to discount airlines because costs can rise without warning. Over the past year, shares have moved through a wide range, from about $12.69 to $23.72. That volatility can feel exhausting, but it also reflects operating leverage. A smooth season can quickly increase profits, and a messy season can wipe out momentum just as quickly.
The numbers
Recent earnings figures demonstrate the earning power and vulnerability of the model. In the third quarter (Q3) of 2025, Air Canada shares reported operating revenues of $5.774 billion and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of $961 million. It also generated free cash flow of $211 million. The second quarter of 2025 also looked solid, with revenue of $5.632 billion and net income of $186 million, or $0.51 per diluted share. Aeroplan and premium cabins help as they generate more revenue, but the airline still lives and dies by execution.
Valuation keeps Air Canada shares on watchlists, but leverage keeps them out of some core portfolios. On a sales basis, Air Canada shares may look cheap compared to the broader market, which invites bargain hunters. The balance sheet tells the other half of the story. Total debt is about $11.8 billion, so interest costs matter. The refinancing risk is also important if interest rates remain higher for longer. High debt can increase returns if cash flow remains strong, but it can also increase the pain if demand declines or costs rise. This is why investors are cautious about it.
Considerations
So is Air Canada stock a buy, hold or sell opportunity in 2026? For most investors, it fits best as a point of reference. If you already own it, you can justify holding it if you see stable demand, improving operational reliability, and gradually reducing debt. Many analysts still see upside, with targets in the mid-$20s, which helps sentiment. But you should think of it as a controlled position, not a set-it-and-forget-it holding. Keep a close eye on free cash flow, net debt trends, and headlines.
If you don’t own it, 2026 seems like a selective buy only for investors who can handle turbulence. The company is sometimes confronted with higher labor costs and a more difficult leisure environment, which means that the margin for error remains small. Air Canada stock also doesn’t pay dividends, so you’re relying on execution and a revaluation for returns. If you want a reliable monthly income, this is not the tool. If you want a higher risk recovery play, a small position can make sense, especially if you are averaging over time.
In short
Air Canada shares can reward the right investor, but it requires realism. Treat it like a cyclical business with sharp edges, not a guaranteed comeback. If management delivers more stable operations and continues to reduce debt, the stock could move higher from here. If the shocks return, stocks could fall again quickly. In 2026, discipline will be more important than predicting, and position size more important than conviction. Keep your expectations grounded and let the numbers guide you.
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