SAN FRANCISCO, US, Feb 12 (IPS) – The latest agreement limiting the US and Russia’s strategic nuclear arsenals, New START, expired on February 5, and the prospects for any kind of follow-on deal are highly uncertain.
The progress made over decades in halting the growth of nuclear arsenals and then reducing them is in imminent danger of being reversed. This is despite the fact that the goal of “ending the nuclear arms race” is embedded in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, a major multilateral global security agreement.
In a US statement On February 6 at the Conference on Disarmament, Under Secretary of Arms Control and International Security Thomas DiNanno said a “new architecture” is needed, one that “takes into account all Russian nuclear weapons, both new and existing strategic systems.”[es] the breakthrough growth of China’s nuclear weapons stockpiles.”
That is a challenging project. An informal arrangement between the United States and Russia for transparent compliance with the New START limits for at least a short period appears within the realm of possibility.
But the obstacles to successful negotiations on a new treaty or treaties involving the United States, Russia and China are high.
The Chinese have shown no interest in discussing limits on their arsenal, which remains much smaller than the U.S. and Russian arsenals. Russia wants negotiations on U.S. missile defense plans and non-nuclear strategic strike options.
The United States wants Russia’s non-strategic nuclear weapons and new systems such as a long-range nuclear-armed torpedo, both not limited by New START, addressed. More generally, the rise of authoritarian nationalism and acute geopolitical tensions are not conducive to progress.
Nevertheless, especially with the next five-year Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference approaching this spring, it must be emphasized that the United States, Russia, and China are bound by the obligation of Article VI of the NPT to continue negotiations in good faith on “an early end to the nuclear arms race” and on nuclear disarmament.
When negotiations for the NPT were concluded in 1968, ending the nuclear arms race was believed to mainly involve limiting the strategic arsenals of the US and the Soviet Union, a ban on nuclear explosion tests, and a ban on the production of fissile materials for nuclear weapons.
Ending the nuclear arms race was seen as setting the stage for negotiations on nuclear disarmament, that is, the elimination of nuclear weapons.
After the NPT came into effect in 1970, the United States and Russia moved quickly to reduce the arms race by negotiating bilateral treaties that limited delivery systems and missile defenses.
However, the size of Russia’s nuclear warhead stockpile continued to rise until the mid-1980s. Then a series of treaties, especially the 1991 START I agreement, dramatically reduced the two arsenals, while still leaving civilization in place and destroying a large number of nuclear warheads.
With the demise of New START, there is no longer a treaty regulating the arsenals of the United States, Russia, China and other nuclear weapons states. China is expanding its arsenal and the United States and Russia are poised to follow suit. The three countries are also diversifying their arsenals and expanding the capabilities of delivery systems in different ways.
Increasing, diversifying, and modernizing nuclear arsenals as currently underway or planned amounts to rejecting the NPT goal of ending the nuclear arms race at an early date and does not meet the legal requirement of good faith in pursuing that goal.
The NPT Review Conference would be an appropriate setting to launch an initiative to reverse this dangerous and illegal trend. It should also be emphasized that arms control between the three powers does not and should not preclude multilateral negotiations on establishing the ‘architecture’ of a world free of nuclear weapons.
John Burroughs is a Senior Analyst, Legal Committee for Nuclear Policy
IPS UN Office
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