- Made possible by meaningful data: The PFF First Touchdown Finder uses early-game EPA to isolate fast-starting teams and likely first scorers.
- In addition to everything you need to know: Bring out the players who see early and red zone opportunities, combined with defensive resistance and the best prices available.
Anytime touchdown bets are among the most popular markets in football, but are often driven more by guesswork than data. PFF’s new First Touchdown Finder is designed to change that, using early game efficiency, player usage and matchup context to identify the most useful scoring opportunities each week.
TE Hunter Henry, New England Patriots
Using the new First Touchdown Finder, we can evaluate the first touchdown market from a more data-driven perspective. In the Broncos-Patriots matchup, Denver has struggled on scripted plays at minus 0.03 EPA per play, while New England has posted 0.11 EPA per play, giving the Patriots a clear advantage to strike first.
That context gives Hunter Henry a strong opportunity against a Broncos defense that ranks in the bottom 10 in targets, yards and receptions allowed to tight ends. Henry also leads the Patriots in red zone targets in the first half, which increases his chances of finding the end zone first.
At +950, Henry scoring the first touchdown stands out as a value play.
RB Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks
Walker ranks second among running backs in forced missed tackles this season. This is an area where the Rams’ defense is struggling, as the team ranks ninth in missed tackles. That matchup becomes even more enticing given the recent changes in Seattle’s backfield.
With bruised back Zach Charbonnet sidelined with an ACL injury, Walker is now positioned to handle the vast majority of the workload. Charbonnet was responsible for much of Seattle’s red zone usage, opportunities that should now shift heavily to Walker.
In a favorable matchup and with an expanded role, Walker is well positioned to score in this championship game.
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