ACC predicted order of finish: Duke picked to win, UNC overrated, NC State underrated in preseason poll

The ACC has released its notice predicted order of finish in preseason on Tuesday ahead of the 2025-26 college basketball season. Duke was picked to win the conference in the annual preseason poll, while NC State forward Darrion Williams earned preseason Player of the Year honors. Williams transferred from Texas Tech to NC State to play for first-year coach Will Wade this offseason.

After reaching the Final Four for the first time in the Jon Scheyer era, Duke will look to return to college basketball’s biggest stage with a handful of key newcomers on the roster. One of those players is former five-star forward Cameron Boozer – the son of former N.B.A great Duke player Carlos Boozer – who is in contention to become the No. 1 overall pick in 2026 NBA draft.

Rounding out the top five in the ACC standings behind Duke are Louisville, North Carolina, NC State and Virginia. Two of those teams will have first-year coaches in Wade (at NC State) and Ryan Odom (at Virginia). Odom was hired this offseason to replace former coach Tony Bennett, who retired just weeks before Virginia’s season opener last fall.

Here’s the full poll, followed by overestimated and underestimated observations from the predicted order of finish.

ACC preseason predicted order of finish

Overrated: North Carolina

Predicted finish: 3

I wrote earlier this week about North Carolina and why they were labeled “overrated.” in our annual preseason AP Top 25 poll roundup. The Tar Heels were ranked No. 25 in that poll in the preseason, and I explained why NC State should have come out on top in the last spot, so it’s only right to double down since UNC was picked ahead of NC State in this poll as well.

This season will be a make-or-break year for UNC coach Hubert Davis. After entering the NCAA Tournament as one of the last four teams in the field, UNC will have to be better this season to avoid sweating on Selection Sunday. UNC’s resume included just one win over a ranked opponent and the Tar Heels went 0-3 against Duke. I like North Carolina frontcourt forward Caleb Wilson and Arizona transfer Henri Veesaar. Alabama transfer Jarin Stevenson is also someone who could contribute to the win. I still think UNC is an NCAA Tournament team, but the Tar Heels will have to appear in big non-conference games this season against Kentucky, Kansas and Michigan State. Betting odds to win the conference +700

Underrated: NC State

Predicted finish: 4

The hype surrounding NC State is real. Less than two years removed from a miraculous run to the Final Four under former coach Kevin Keatts, Wade has put together a roster that can immediately compete for the ACC crown.

The obvious headliner from NC State’s portal class is Williams, who played a big role in Texas Tech reaching the Elite Eight last spring. Williams is a bulldozer and is a nightmare for smaller defenders. He can raise the floor and ceiling of this group. Tre Holloman (Michigan State), Terrance Arceneaux (Kentucky) and Ven-Allen Lubin (North Carolina) are three more names I’m keeping an eye on. I wouldn’t be shocked if NC State finishes in the top three of the ACC standings. Betting odds to win the conference +700

Overrated: Virginia

Predicted finish: 5

Last season was chaotic for Virginia, as the program finished ninth in the ACC with an 8-12 conference record. The Cavaliers went out and hired Odom away from his post at VCU to bring life back into the program. The hiring was good in a nutshell, but I have questions about the selection that make me think Virginia could finish below fifth in the final conference standings.

I also like some of the teams behind Virginia, like SMU, Clemson, Miami, and Syracuse (more on these soon). The name I’m keeping an eye on this season is San Francisco transfer Malik Thomas, who averaged almost 20 points per game last season. If he can bring scoring to a team that ranked No. 346 among all Division I teams in scoring offense, Virginia could outperform its preseason rankings. Betting odds to win the conference +2200

Underrated: Syracuse

Predicted finish: 9

Like Davis at North Carolina, this is also a make-or-break season for coach Adrian Autry at Syracuse. The program finished 14-19 last season (7-13 in ACC play) and missed the NCAA Tournament for the fourth consecutive season.

Syracuse is my sleeper team in the ACC this year. JJ Starling returns and the program also added a pair of top-35 recruits from the 2025 cycle: Sadiq White Jr. and Kiyan Anthony, the son of former Syracuse great and NBA legend Carmelo Anthony. Outside of the top four or five teams, the ACC is wide open. Look for Syracuse to finish in the top half of the ACC standings. Betting odds to win the conference +5000

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Preseason All-ACC First Team

Second team

Underrated: Isaiah Evans, G/F, Duke

Of all the returners in the ACC, no player has the opportunity to improve his draft stock more than Evans. The former top recruit primarily came off the bench during his freshman season and despite receiving some buzz, he decided to return to school for his sophomore season.

Evans has been compared to former Duke player and current member of the Toronto Raptors, Brandon Ingram. Evans shot 41.6% from the three-point line in 13.7 minutes per game last season. He has a chance to cement himself as Duke’s second-best player behind Boozer. If he does, he will be in the running for ACC first-team honors.

Overrated: Ryan Conwell, G, Louisville

It’s never easy to select a player on these lists, but if I had to pick one, it would be Conwell. Part of that reasoning is how much of a step forward I think Evans will take this season at Duke. The other factor is that Louisville is loaded with talent. I am convinced that Mikel Brown Jr. – whether from Day 1 or in March – will be the Cardinals’ best player.

Conwell was one of the key newcomers to the Louisville roster. He had a fantastic season at Xavier and posted similar scoring numbers during his 2023-2024 season at Indiana State. Conwell is a volume 3-point shooter who will help immensely. Part of my reasoning is that there will be a lot of mouths to feed, which could open the door for someone like Evans to end up in the first team over Conwell.