A dramatic change in weather patterns will bring widespread rain to Australia’s east coast this week, following last week’s intense heatwave and devastating bushfires.
The shift will bring a “sustained period of wet weather”, according to the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), which will help reduce the immediate bushfire danger, but will also increase the risk of flash flooding.
In the meantime, the remnants of ex-tropical cyclone Koji continue to bring heavy rain to tropical Queensland, while a separate tropical system is expected to develop over the Top End this weekend, bringing fresh concerns about flooding and a possible cyclone.
Severe storms and flooding rain for NSW and Victoria
Eastern NSW and Victoria are preparing for the biggest rainfall in months as storm activity increases from Thursday.
Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and an increased risk of flash flooding are likely in Queensland, NSW, Victoria and the ACT, centered around East Gippsland, the south-eastern corner of NSW, and areas along the state’s northern slopes and mountain ranges.
Main thunderstorms are expected to concentrate over central eastern and north-eastern NSW on Friday, while more stable rain and isolated storms will develop along the southern NSW coast and over Gippsland.
Weather models indicate that the band of heaviest rainfall, accompanied by gusty winds, will gradually shift northward along the coast over the weekend.
The focus on Sunday is expected to be on the Illawarra, Sydney basin and the Hunter region, where flash flooding remains a concern.
While flash flooding is possible in several districts, there is also a risk of river flooding in the Illawarra and South Coast.
The BoM reports that the catchments are relatively dry, increasing the risk of minor flooding.
Ex-tropical cyclone creating wet conditions
Flooding rain is also forecast for parts of northern Australia as former Tropical Cyclone Koji continues to drift northwest over Queensland.
The remnants of Koji are expected to trigger further localized heavy falls and flash flooding from the Gulf country to the central coast on Thursday, while thunderstorms will continue on Friday.
The BoM is predicting more than 100mm of rain in northeast Queensland and western parts of the NT over the next week.
Flood warnings remain in effect for 15 rivers and creeks in the Gulf country, western and central Queensland and Cape York.
The chance of Koji developing into a cyclone again remains low, at 15 percent or less until at least next Wednesday, the BoM said.
As conditions ease in Queensland, a new tropical low is expected to form at the top end.
BoM forecast models suggest the system could drift westward off the coast early next week, creating a 25 percent chance of cyclone development off the northern coast of Western Australia next week.
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