A protracted war with Iran could deplete U.S. missile stockpiles and test escalation control

As coordinated U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran continue, current and former defense officials say that while a limited strike lasting several days is feasible, sustaining a broader confrontation — potentially involving hundreds of incoming missiles — is far more complicated.

The US and Israel on Saturday undertook a mission known as Operation Epic Fury, targeting Iranian leaders and military sites. Its duration is still unclear, but US officials say the campaign could last for days.

Sustaining operations beyond the initial period poses a more complex challenge – one posed by zero-sum competition for missile defense supplies between the Middle East and Europe.

Officials and analysts warn that some U.S. missile and air defense interceptor supplies have been severely depleted by the brutal pace of recent operations. The strategic dilemma for the Pentagon is that the systems needed to protect U.S. bases from Iranian retaliation are the same systems that are being exhausted by defending Ukraine and continuing to protect Israel.

Iran has already fired counterattacks near US positions in Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Jordan, with several host governments saying their air defense systems intercepted incoming projectiles. No fatalities or injuries to U.S. military personnel were reported Saturday, a U.S. official told Fox News Digital.

U.S. authorities have not released casualty numbers or formal damage estimates.

During the intense June 2025 Iran-Israel conflict, U.S. forces fired more than 150 Terminal High Altitude Area Defense Interceptors — about a quarter of the entire global inventory — and a large number of standard missiles at ships to protect allies, according to published defense assessments.

This shortage is largely attributed to the dual pressures of supplying Ukraine against Russian cruise missiles and the surge of batteries into the Middle East. Replenishing these high-end systems could take more than a year, analysts say, because production lines are optimized for peacetime and cannot be ramped up overnight.

Independent groups have noted that the US currently produces approximately 600 to 650 Patriot PAC-3 MSE missiles annually, due to recent contracts to increase production capacity. Analysts say that in a high-intensity war with a near-peer opponent like Iran — where multiple interceptors are often used to defeat a single incoming missile — even a year’s worth of production could be consumed in a matter of weeks, especially after the recent setbacks in Ukraine and the Middle East.

“The War Department has what it needs to execute any mission at the time and place of the President’s choosing and on any timeline,” Pentagon chief spokesman Sean Parnell said in response to questions about readiness.

Retired Air Force Gen. Charles Wald, former deputy commander of US European Command, said the United States retains the ability to send conventional offensive munitions into the region and draw from pre-positioned stockpiles if a campaign is ordered.

“From a conventional munitions perspective, we can always fly in more weapons from around the world,” Wald told Fox News Digital. “There are a lot of weapons stored there with these types of missions in mind.”

The biggest concern, he acknowledged, is on the defensive side.

“The issue will be defensive weapons – Patriot, SM-3 and the Arrow system in Israel,” Wald said. “You can never have enough defense.”

Regional analysts warn that if missile sharing continues, the interceptor inventory – not offensive offensive weapons – could become the binding constraint.

“There is a limit to the number of THAAD missiles that can be used,” said Israeli defense analyst Ehud Eilam. “These are not systems that you can reproduce overnight.”

Iran is believed to possess between 1,500 ballistic missiles and 2,000 ballistic missiles, as well as drones and shorter-range missiles that could hit US bases and the Gulf’s energy infrastructure.

A US Army Terminal High Altitude Area Defense weapon system is on display at Andersen Air Force Base in Guam in October 2017. (Reuters/US Army/Capt. Adan Cazarez)

Several experts also pointed out the psychological impact of recent US operations.

The rapid Operation Absolute Resolve in Venezuela in January 2026 and the 12-day exchange with Iran in the summer of 2025 have strengthened confidence in US military capabilities. However, a former defense official warned that success on these tight missions could create a false sense of momentum for action in much more complex scenarios.

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“Iran is a completely different problem,” the official said — a large, heavily armed state with extensive missile forces and regional proxy networks that don’t resemble a short, surgical operation.

Wald acknowledged that risk.

“You don’t want to give people so much confidence that you don’t consider the risks. It won’t be as clean or pure as, say, Venezuela was, or the 12-day war.”

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei sits next to a senior military official in Iran. (Getty Images)

Even as the attacks continue, officials warn that retaliation by Iran and its network of allied militias could widen the conflict. Iran’s ballistic missiles and drones – in combination with allied groups in Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen – have already prompted missile salvos against US bases and Gulf partners, according to defense reports.

Experts say the 2025 conflict has underscored how quickly escalation can test both defensive systems and political will.

“Once these things break, you own what follows,” one former official said, underscoring the risk that missiles and proxy actions could quickly expand a limited U.S. attack.

Wald warned that even a successful military phase would not remove political uncertainty.

“Bombing Iran will not bring about regime change,” he said, stressing that air power can dent capabilities but cannot guarantee a stable political outcome.

Beyond the immediate exchange, officials say the economic fallout could be just as dire. Roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and even limited disruption could send global energy markets soaring.

For Washington, the strategic calculus extends beyond the Middle East. China remains the main long-term competitor, with the war in Ukraine already consuming significant resources.

An ongoing regional conflict would place demands on naval assets and air defense systems that planners must also consider for possible future contingencies in Taiwan or North Korea.

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Officials familiar with internal deliberations say President Donald Trump has sought a high degree of confidence in how an unforeseen event in Iran would unfold — a standard that is harder to meet in scenarios involving escalation and political fallout.

Fox News Digital has contacted the White House for comment.

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