As a new year begins, the economic backdrop feels cautiously constructive, but certainly not carefree. The U.S. economy faces a complex mix of strong tailwinds and persistent headwinds, creating an environment that can best be described as muted optimism.
At a recent call on the economic and real estate outlook, hosted by Marcus & Millichap, leading economists and industry experts set out what lies ahead for growth, jobs and the key commercial real estate sectors.
At a macro level, the economy is expected to continue moving forward, but not without friction, opened Hessam Nadji, CEO of Marcus & Millichap. Job growth has slowed significantly in 2025, and that weakness is likely to persist.
Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi said: “I don’t expect very many jobs in 2026, but just enough to keep unemployment close to current levels.” With the national unemployment rate currently around 4.4%, it is expected to hover between 4.5% and 5% over the next year – still low by historical standards, but reflective of a cooler labor market.
The economic forecast: tailwind meets headwind
The outlook for GDP growth in 2026 is heavily dependent on two major tailwinds: artificial intelligence (AI) and fiscal stimulus. AI has become a surprisingly powerful growth engine. Zandi pointed to massive investments in data centers, chips, servers and energy infrastructure as key signals that the company is full steam ahead. The US remains a global leader, with approximately 5,000 to 6,000 data centers operating or under construction, far outpacing the rest of the world.
The second channel through which AI influences the economy is the financial markets. A sharp rise in AI-related stock valuations has created a huge wealth effect. “Total shareholder wealth in the U.S. is about $10 trillion larger today than it was a year ago,” Zandi said. Even a modest wealth effect from these gains has translated into stronger consumer spending, especially among higher-income households.
On top of that will be fiscal stimulus: tax cuts, higher government spending and larger tax refunds, which are expected to be about $100 billion higher than last year. Together, these factors should provide a meaningful boost to GDP in the first half of 2026.
Yet headwinds remain. Trade policy, tariffs, restrictive immigration policies and the risk of financial market volatility in the bond market dampen optimism. “Ultimately, tailwinds and headwinds should support growth,” Zandi said, “but risks are still more on the downside than on the upside.”
Multi-family housing: strong demand, limited supply in the future
Against that economic backdrop, the multifamily sector stands out for its long-term fundamentals, says Sharon Wilson Geno, president of the National Multifamily Housing Council. The vacancy rate of apartments remains relatively stable and is below 5% nationally, but the most striking development is taking place on the supply side. Multifamily starts are down roughly 72% from their peak, and the number of units under construction is down more than 50%.
A small group of fast-growing metros – such as Dallas, Atlanta, Phoenix, Austin and Houston – are responsible for a disproportionate share of new supply. The sharp downturn in the construction sector is expected to sharpen conditions significantly as 2026 progresses.
Demand remains well supported by restrictions on the affordability of the for-sale housing market. Only about 25% of Americans qualify for a typical first home purchase, Geno said, and the gap between the average rent and the average mortgage payment is the widest ever.
“Tenants stay renters longer,” Geno noted.
Owners continue to feel pressure from insurance, labor and operating costs. Rental growth has yet to fully reflect the coming supply shortage, but the consensus is that conditions should improve towards the end of 2026 and into 2027.
Office and industry: divergent but stabilizing paths
After a long period of post-pandemic distress, the office market is starting to show signs of stabilization, according to NAIOP President and CEO Marc Selvitelli. For the first time in years, some markets are showing positive net absorption. Daily office attendance is increasing and return-to-office mandates are slowly restoring demand.
Performance in the office remains very mixed. Newer, amenity-rich suburban and trophy properties far outperform older properties.
Industrial real estate, on the other hand, is struggling with the aftermath of a post-pandemic construction wave. High vacancies have less to do with weak demand and more to do with an influx of new supply – especially large, modern facilities. Smaller and mid-sized industrial assets, often owned by private investors, continue to perform relatively well, and the sector is experiencing a recalibration of pre-pandemic demand levels.
Data centers have become a separate and fast-growing niche. Selvitelli noted that 1.8% of NAIOP members responded positively when asked about their involvement in data center development by 2023. That number increased to 12% by 2025 – and continues to grow. While there is no end in sight to the demand for data centers, the backlash against their development continues as the net productivity benefits of AI come under increasing scrutiny, as do the excessive energy and water consumption blamed for driving up consumer prices.
In short
All told, the 2026 outlook points to progress, not perfection. Growth should continue, commercial real estate fundamentals are generally moving in the right direction and opportunities are emerging across asset classes. The speakers agreed that 2026 is expected to be a year that rewards discipline, selectivity and close attention to risks. Zandi summed it up: “It should be a good year, but there are still plenty of things to be nervous about.”
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