At the start of each tennis season, I make predictions for the field of eight for the year-end championship: the Nitto ATP Finals.
Now that the 2025 campaign is over, it’s time to look back at my choices. As is the case with most years, they were everywhere. Some were right about the money, while others were way off.
Here they are:
1. Carlos Alcaraz – I succeeded when Alcaraz finished the year at number 1 in the world for the second time in his career. Granted, it was pretty much a 50/50 proposition heading into the season as no one other than Jannik Sinner had a realistic chance. And admittedly, it would have been wrong if Sinner hadn’t had a three-month ban.
2. Jannik sinner – An Alcaraz-Sinner exacta turned out to be correct. But then again, things would have turned around if the Italian had played a full season. Of course, no one else was in the same galaxy. Alcaraz and Sinner shared the four Grand Slams with two titles each before Sinner triumphed in Turin – albeit after his rival had already taken top spot.
3. Daniil Medvedev – Amazingly, this wasn’t even my worst choice! But it was definitely a bad one. Medvedev took just one Grand Slam victory in 2025. No… no title. A single one agreement. The 29-year-old Russian finally started playing well towards the end of the season, to the extent that he could have earned a Nitto ATP Finals berth with a win at the Paris Masters.
4. Alexander Zverev – Zverev finished the season at number 3 in the rankings, so only the Medvedev disaster prevented me from hitting the mark with the German. It was pretty much the same old story for Zverev. His consistency was impressive, but another year without a major title came and went (lost to Sinner in the Australian Open final).
5. Novak Djokovic – Like Zverev, Djokovic would have been in the right order without Medvedev’s mistake. I had him right behind Zverev and just ahead of Taylor Fritz, which was actually just right. When the 38-year-old Serbian played against someone other than Alcaraz and Sinner, he usually did quite well. And if he were to participate in more events, Djokovic would even be ahead of Zverev.
6. Taylor Fritz – This was exactly right. I had Fritz behind Medvedev but ahead of Felix Auger-Aliassime, so that evened out and in this No. 6 spot we find the American heading into 2026. Fritz didn’t reach a slam final this season (he finished second behind Sinner at the 2024 US Open), but otherwise he was just as good as he was two years ago.
7. Stefanos Tsitsipas – Haha. I thought that Tsitsipas’ retirement as coach would steer the Greek in the right direction. To say I thought wrong would be an understatement. Of course, his coaching situation was probably the least of Tsitsipas’ problems. His backhand – among other shots – went completely off the rails on his way to a 34th-place finish at the end of the year.
8. Tommy Paul – Okay, this pick really wasn’t as bad as Paul’s #20 ranking would indicate. The 28-year-old American has not played since the US Open and he has not been 100 percent physically fit since the French Open. Paul was playing great before injuries became a factor. In reality, he did well simply by finishing in the top twenty.
Nitto ATP Finals alternate picks
9. Holger Rune – Rune was in contention for a spot in Turin (or at least as an alternate) before suffering a torn Achilles tendon in Stockholm. Finishing just outside the Nitto ATP Finals boundary was a good decision on my part.
10. Ben Shelton – I was legitimately high on Shelton going into 2025… just not high enough. The 23-year-old American qualified for Turin with relative ease, although he actually finished in ninth place after finishing 0-3 in the season-ending tournament.
Among the players I underestimated in 2025 were Auger-Aliassime (No. 5), Alex de Minaur (No. 7) and Lorenzo Musetti (No. 8). I correctly predicted that Casper Ruud and Andrey Rublev would not be part of the Nitto ATP Finals discussion this year.
#predictions #ATP #final #rankings