6 players on the PGA Tour ready for breakout (or rebound!) seasons

With the 2026 PGA Tour season kicking off later this week in Hawaii, big names and storylines will dominate the preview exercises in professional golf.

But what do the numbers say about potential breakout stars this year? And what statistics and trends point to possible recovery campaigns among experienced players? I dug into some key metrics to identify strong candidates to fill these positions in 2026. Some names will sound familiar, while others will fly under the radar – but only for a short time.

PIERCESON COODY

Pierceson Coody has spent his entire golfing life walking in the tall shadow of expectation; He is a third-generation touring pro and grandson of 1971 Masters winner Charles Coody. The 25-year-old Texan has reached this moment repeatedly with a climb to the top of the World Amateur Golf Ranking, a national team championship in Texas and a trio of Korn Ferry Tour victories.

Now the numbers indicate a player who is ready to take the next step in his career. There are 135 players with enough rounds to officially qualify for the PGA Tour stats in both the 2024 and ’25 seasons. Of that group, Coody made the biggest jump in the number of punches he landed per round, increasing his average by 1.15 per round in ’25.

Coody led the Tour in strokes gained off the tee and ranked fourth in green in regulation percentage a season ago. From the 3M Open through the end of the season, Coody ranked second on Tour in GIR (77.8%), 4th in strokes (+1.40) and 8th in scoring average.

Key metrics to improve: from 15 to 20 feet. Coody has been outside the Tour’s top 150 in percentage of that range in each of the past two seasons. It would have consequences to bring that number just up to the Tour average.

GARRICK HIGGO

You could guess most golf fans fifty times who led the PGA Tour in birdie average last season, and they wouldn’t guess the right answer. It is Higgo, who rose from 159th place in total wins on the Tour in 2024 to 22nd place last year. That jump of 137 places is by far the highest among qualifiers (second biggest jump: Alex Smalley, up 115 places).

Higgo’s win last April at Corales Puntacana was clearly the highlight of his season, but the most promising part of his statistical picture in 2025 was consistent play. After five top-10 finishes in 92 PGA Tour starts from 2021-2024, Higgo matched that total last season in just 15 events. In 2024, Higgo was well outside the top 100 in bogey avoidance. Last season, Scottie Scheffler was the only player with a lower bogey percentage on Tour.

Key metrics to improve: rough proximity. Higgo ranked 160th in average proximity to the rough last year (47′ 3″), more than a foot worse than the PGA Tour average. The good news is he has enough physical talent to change that; Higgo is in the top 20 on Tour in clubhead speed.

RICKIE FOWLER

Major League Baseball probably has the most pronounced midseason break in American professional sports – before and after the All-Star Game are universally considered a key checkpoint in a marathon season. This dividing line often refers to the player numbers. For the PGA Tour, there are several ways to break this up, but a common “halfway” point between Hawaii and East Lake is early May.

In 2025, there were exactly 100 players who had 30 or more PGA Tour qualifying rounds on either side of that divide last season. Among the list of players who improved their performance the most in the second half compared to the first half is Fowler, whose improvement of 1.45 total strokes per round is the 7th best of that group.

Fowler moved up more than 100 spots in bogey avoidance from 2024 to 2025 (140th to 28th), and he finished the season with T6 and T7 finishes in his two FedExCup Playoff starts.

Key metrics to improve: approach play. Fowler returned to the winner’s circle in 2023, a season in which he climbed into the top 10 of the PGA Tour with increasing strokes. That number crumbled to 124th in 2024 before making a modest improvement last season. Fowler’s two strong playoff performances included two of his best iron playing weeks of the year, a potential flash of things to come.

MICHAEL THORBJORNSEN

Few ballshooting talents match the immense promise of former U.S. Junior Amateur champion Michael Thorbjornsen. In 2025, he achieved the rare statistical double of leading the Tour in both total riding and greens in regulation. The list of other players to do so over the past thirty seasons is illustrious: Hal Sutton in 1998, David Duval in 1999, Tiger Woods in 2000 and Henrik Stenson in 2015.

Great achievements quickly followed for each of these star players after reaching that ball-shooting pinnacle. Sutton went on to win the Players in 2000. Duval broke through and won his major at The Open in 2001. Amid the most dominant wave ever played, Woods completed the ‘Tiger Slam’ in ’01. Stenson defeated Phil Mickelson to win The Open in 2016.

That big leap may be an unfair expectation for Thorbjornsen in 2025 – he has only played in one major championship as a professional – but it does speak to his enormous potential. In his final start of 2025, the RSM Classic, Thorbjornsen entered the final lap just two shots off the lead before eventually finishing in a tie for 7th. That first PGA Tour victory is coming.

Key metrics to improve: strokes gained with putting. It’s a broad spectrum here, but Thorbjornsen was outside the top 100 on Tour in virtually every major putting metric a year ago. That includes the telling strokes he achieved, where he finished 120th. The only time Thorbjornsen finished a week in the top 20 of a Tour field in putting was at the 3M Open, where he finished T4.

JOHNNY KEEFER

Think about this: In the seven seasons in which the Korn Ferry Tour has presented Rookie of the Year honors, two players have earned that distinction And Player of the Year: Scottie Scheffler in 2018 and Johnny Keefer in 2025.

If you didn’t follow the KFT last season, Keefer’s jump into the official world golf rankings might surprise you. He finished the year in 48th place, right behind Wyndham Clark and Si Woo Kim. And yes, that top-50 EOY finish earned Keefer an invitation to Augusta National next April.

Keefer showed balanced brilliance from a statistical perspective on the Korn Ferry Tour last season: over 320 yards off the tee, top 15 in greens in reg, 2nd in scrambling and 10th in putting average. He also capped his year with a top-10 at the PGA Tour’s RSM Classic.

Key metrics to improve: PGA tour begins. It’s the simplest of observations, but Keefer doesn’t yet have the reputation on the biggest professional circuit in the world, having played just six PGA Tour events. As warm as it has been over the past 18 months, the increase may slow somewhat in early 2026.

MAX HOMA

After finishing in the top 10 in nearly 30% of his PGA Tour starts from 2021 through 2023, Max Homa has only five such finishes over the past two seasons. His stalled career rise led to a swing change, which began to pay off when he shot a 64 in Round 2 of the PGA Championship. More consistent play came at the end of the year; in his last eight starts of 2025, Homa averaged just 2.2 bogeys or worse per round and a scoring average of 68.7.

Homa entered the 3M Open last summer with an average of -0.65 strokes tee-to-green per round for the ’25 Tour season. From then until the end of the year, that number was +0.66 per round. Homa has spent 67 weeks of his career in the top 10 of the Official World Golf Ranking. The numbers suggest he’s getting closer to that version of himself than what we’ve seen in the last 24 months.

Key metrics to improve: birdie conversion rate. This is a two-pronged number: Homa’s improved approach game will inherently result in more realistic birdie looks. That will lead to a higher percentage of converted putts, a category in which he ranked 5th in 2023. The past two seasons he ranked 86th and 71st respectively. Homa was in the top 10 on Tour in most of the overall putting categories just three seasons ago, and there’s no reason to think he won’t rediscover that form soon.