1. The price you pay
Investors have driven a lot on the American inflation report on Thursday August. A rate reduction during the meeting of 16-17 September of the Federal Reserve is priced, but no foregosted business, especially if the consumer price index rises more than the 0.3% expected after the rise of 0.2% of July.
Some policy makers, including FED chairman Jerome Powell, have indicated that a relaxation is likely for the first time since December, perhaps this month – depending on data. The long-term pass-through rates must still be felt by consumers who pay for imported goods.
US Treasury auctions will be another test from where the long-term interest rate goes, in particular the 30-year bond sales on Thursday. T -binding revenues have risen above the psychological 5% level for the first time in seven weeks in the last few days, so that the buyers of bonds must indicate bonds to offer bonds offering the long end.
2. Money is too tight (to mention)
Who would be jealous, Minister of Finance of France or Great Britain at the moment?
Economic growth is weak, debts uncomfortably high. Try to lower government spending and you have a rebellion in your hands, indicate that you take the tax discipline anything but seriously, and Bond dives.
France has a voice in parliament on Monday, exactly because the prime minister wants to withdraw for an unpopular debt reduction plan. It is unlikely that he will win, stimulating political uncertainty and difficulties that yield a budget deficit of more than 5%.
The tax challenges of Great Britain have hurt Gilts and Sterling. A budget in November is an important risk event.
Norway votes on 7-8 September in a tight election that has seen investments in Israel in Focus, which causes an unusually public debate about how the sovereign Wealth Fund of the Scandinavian country – the largest in the world – is active.
3. Poker face
The ECB meeting will keep rates on Thursday. Traders think the Central Bank is ready this year.
A ragless tone during the July meeting, an EU-US-Handel Agreement and better than expected data have since wiped bets on further relaxation.
Traders now see about 30% chance of a rate reduction in December, with almost completely priced that movement before the July meeting. Economists interviewed by Reuters also think that the ECB will be performed for 2025.
Policy makers wanted to remain “intentionally not -informationative” about future decisions for the last time. Markets are confronted with another gambling game while traders try to read between the lines during the ECB Chief Christine Lagarde news conference.
It is also expected to be forced on which renewed political unrest in France and the risk of a deterioration of the independence of the American Federal Reserve for the euro zone economy.
4. Large in Japan
Data from China and Japan will be closely monitored for signs of how the Mercurial rate policy of US President Donald Trump influences the greatest economies in Asia.
China’s trade data must appear on Monday before August when the conversations between Beijing and Washington went to the thread to expand a trade reinforcement and to prevent more than 100% rates at each other’s goods.
The previous print showed that Chinese exports grew a better than expected 7.2% in July, but a breakthrough with the Trump administration remains far.
The Reuters Tankan Index on Wednesday of the sentiment of Japanese manufacturers, who follows the central bank’s own size, can provide clarity about how Japan Inc displays the unrest in the trade. Uncertainty about the rate hit has remained the Bank of Japan’s hand on tariff increases.
5. Black and gold
Gold has again scaled record highs, stimulated by uncertainty about the global economic prospects, US trade policy and the fate of King Dollar after Trump’s fight with the FED caused a legal challenge with high efforts and brought new concern about the central bank’s independence.
Analysts predict that the run is not yet completely over for the ultimate safe haven after Gold prices reached a record high in recent days of $ 3,578.50, and central benches that participated in the push to save the precious metal.
But there is less a shine on oil, prior to a weekend meeting of OPEC+ producers who are expected to consider a new increase in production goals in October.
Another boost would mean that the group – which is pumping half of the oil in the world and is on a push to regain market share – the output reductions of approximately 1.65 million barrels per day, or 1.6% of world demand – would reject more than a year earlier than planned.
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