$27.8 Billion in Unrealized Losses Hit Bitcoin Self-custody Holders While ETFs Lose $8.5 Billion

ETF capital flight reflects the stress on private pockets, indicating that institutions and individuals are now responding to the same pressures globally.

A specific cohort of Bitcoin (BTC) holders practicing strict restraint are now facing a collective unrealized loss of $27.89 billion, a figure that reflects the financial bleeding seen in the US institutional market, where ETF exposure has fallen by two-thirds since the end of 2024.

The data shows that the sell-side pressure that is crushing Bitcoin is not just a Wall Street phenomenon, but a systemic event that also impacts long-term cold storage believers.

ETFs and On-Chain Hodlers share the same red

According to a detailed on-chain analysis by GugaOnChain, self-custody is between 10 and 10,000 BTC with a UTXO age of 1 to 3 months suffering a drop of -23.39%, which translates into almost $28 billion in paper losses.

This group, which rejects centralized currency deposits in favor of hard wallets, is in the same position as the institutional giants trading through CME futures and ETFs. Data shows that these US institutional products have lost $8.5 billion since October, with exposure down by two-thirds from the 2024 peak. GugaOnChain believes this confluence of stress confirms the thesis that the market is “hostage to the same carnage” whether on a trading floor or in a private vault.

Unfortunately, the macro environment suggests that relief is not imminent. While three mainstays, namely accumulators (371,900 BTC demand), retail (6,384 BTC added monthly), and miners (with an MPI of -1.11), have managed to save the number one cryptocurrency from an immediate collapse, the analyst sees these as mere delays.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin price data shows mixed performance across different time frames, with the asset trading just below $67,000 at the time of writing, down around 1% in 24 hours, but slightly positive for the week. The broader trend remains negative, with the asset down around 27% over 30 days and around 42% over six months per CoinGlass.

“The recovery? It depends on the price reaction to the above levels,” GugaOnChain said.

Whale accumulation is associated with retail hesitation

Despite the widespread losses, the market is witnessing a major divergence in behavior, complicating the outlook. While short-term retail demand has cooled significantly, with data from Alphractal showing 90-day net position change for short-term holders falling rapidly, whales are viewing the dip as a sell-off.

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According to CryptoQuant, whale holdings increased by approximately 200,000 BTC in the past month, from 2.9 million to over 3.1 million BTC. Furthermore, the analytics firm noted that this scale of accumulation was last seen during the April 2025 correction, just before Bitcoin’s rally from $76,000 to $126,000. This suggests that while ‘dumb money’ may be panicking, ‘smart money’ is preparing for the long term.