The Rays starters had three pitchers throw 150 or more innings in 2025 (Pepiot at 167, Baz at 166 and Rasmussen just barely hitting 150), which should be considered an achievement. The last time that happened was in 2016, when Chris Archer eclipsed 200, Jake Odorizzi threw 187 and Drew Smyly added 175.
The innings and health of the 2025 rotation were impressive, but their production was about average — even considering Steinbrenner Field was one of the more HR-friendly parks in the league. The Rays starters ranked 15th in ERA, 21st in FIP and 13th in xFIP. They achieved this average production by filling the zone and being above average in managing the quality of contact; ranking 3rd in zone rate and 6th in ground ball rate.
When choosing the key performance indicators to analyze, I initially wanted to look at the inverse of what I’ve been doing for hitters. However, there wasn’t much to decipher from the zone minus the out-of-zone swing rates and 90th percentile EVs for pitchers, as these are more hitter-centric data points. There isn’t much difference in these measurements for pitchers, and they all cluster around the league average.
The pitcher-focused metrics that provided the most useful insight were:
- stroke rate to measure command (and somewhat by proxy, pursuits)
- zone speed to measure control
- contact rate to measure the ability to generate odors
- hard hit percentage to measure EV suppression, and
- ground ball speed plus infield flyball speed to measure the quality of contact.
Here’s how the Rays starters with at least 10 IP fared in every key performance indicator last season (I know Seymour and Boyle had some relief appearances, but they mainly played in bulk/starter roles):
| Player | IP | Strike% | Zone% | Contact% | vine% | GB+IFFB% |
| Ryan Pepiot | 167.2 | 64.4% | 53.7% | 76.6% | 42.5% | 48.3% |
| Shane Baz | 166.1 | 65.0% | 54.0% | 76.1% | 39.4% | 57.5% |
| Drew Rasmussen | 150.0 | 65.5% | 55.2% | 80.5% | 43.3% | 57.2% |
| Zack Littell | 133.1 | 67.7% | 56.3% | 82.3% | 42.2% | 50.6% |
| Taj Bradley | 111.1 | 62.7% | 52.2% | 79.0% | 37.8% | 58.2% |
| Ian Seymor | 57.0 | 65.2% | 54.9% | 75.6% | 37.8% | 41.3% |
| Adriaan Huiser | 56.1 | 66.1% | 52.9% | 83.0% | 50.3% | 55.7% |
| Joe Boyle | 52.0 | 61.0% | 55.2% | 74.4% | 46.0% | 49.1% |
| Total | 65.1% | 54.4% | 78.7% | 42.1% | 53.6% | |
| Competition average 2025 | 64.1% | 52.6% | 77.7% | 41.6% | 51.1% |
We can immediately see that they had an average rotation in the league, and the key performance indicators reflect their mediocre production in ERA, FIP and xFIP.
They were a typical Rays rotation in terms of their above-average strike and zone rates, and their contact management is evident in their increased GB+IFFB% to cover their slightly below-average whiff generation and EV suppression.
A taste of the 2026 group
Looking ahead to 2026, the rotation will look to replace more than half of the innings they got from their starters last season with the departures of Baz, Littell, Bradley and Houser. It will be difficult to replace Baz’s combination of plus scent generation and plus contact management with above average control and control. But the combination of Matz and Martinez gives the team a secure base, as these are two guys who have above-average control and command, but also possess contact management skills.
I have some conservative collection estimates for the current group of starters and bulk pitchers on the 40-man, and I will use their 2024-2025 data in the key performance indicators mentioned above to see how this group might perform in the majors.
Note: I used McClanahan’s 2022-2023 data because he hasn’t pitched since, and Scholtens only had a handful of innings in the Majors last year (he didn’t pitch in 2024), so I used his 2025 AAA data.
Not included: Griffin Jax, an interesting candidate to start, but it looks like he’ll be in the bullpen for now.
| Player | IP | Strike% | Zone% | Contact% | vine% | GB+IFFB% |
| Ryan Pepiot | 175.0 | 64.2% | 52.4% | 75.1% | 40.2% | 49.5% |
| Drew Rasmussen | 150.0 | 65.9% | 55.0% | 78.9% | 42.2% | 57.3% |
| Nick Martinez | 125.0 | 66.0% | 54.7% | 80.4% | 32.6% | 49.1% |
| Steven Matz | 125.0 | 66.8% | 57.1% | 83.5% | 36.9% | 58.0% |
| Shane McClanahan | 75.0 | 66.9% | 51.5% | 68.8% | 36.7% | 55.1% |
| Joe Boyle | 75.0 | 58.5% | 51.7% | 73.6% | 43.3% | 51.9% |
| Ian Seymor | 75.0 | 65.2% | 54.9% | 75.6% | 35.1% | 41.3% |
| Yoendrys Gomez | 50.0 | 62.9% | 52.1% | 77.0% | 39.3% | 43.7% |
| Jesse Scholtens | 25.0 | 64.8% | 47.0% | 73.6% | 34.1% | 52.6% |
| Total | 875.0 | 64.9% | 53.8% | 77.2% | 38.3% | 51.77% |
| Ray rotation 2025 | 65.1% | 54.4% | 78.7% | 42.1% | 53.6% | |
| Competition average 2025 | 64.1% | 52.6% | 77.7% | 41.6% | 51.1% |
The group should show almost the same mastery and control as last year, and there is greater potential for generating more scents.
One of the reasons there should be more swing-and-miss is because the pitches at the Trop are sharper thanks to the indoor climate. Tropicana Field consistently ranks as one of, if not, the best the best – parks for strikeouts. Another reason why the whiff generation should be better in 2026 is that guys like McClanahan, Boyle and Seymour could contribute more innings.
McClanahan will definitely be at the limit, but I think something in the IP range of 75-100 should be reasonable for him. The same could be said for Boyle and Seymour if they are deemed ready to step into a bigger role and there is an opportunity to do so.
The guys who could be workhorses in the rotation of Pepiot, Martinez, and (to a lesser extent but still possible) Matz are all above average in their ability to suppress EVs and manage contact to some extent. These three help raise the floor of the unit, while guys like Rasmussen and McClanahan can take over a game and outright dominate when they are up and running and healthy. Gomez and Scholtens appear to be serviceable backend starters, but I don’t expect a big role for either of them. They can throw strikes as well as cover innings and that has value.
The biggest question mark here is that there is no clear front-of-the-rotation guy capable of taking over a big game in October.
McClanahan can easily be that guy when healthy, but managing the workload he faces could limit his impact in the postseason. The only other guy on the current 40-man roster who can match his level of plus raw stuff across the board is Boyle. But even with his improvements since joining the Rays, he needs his command to take at least another step or two forward before he can be considered for that type of role.
I mean no disrespect to Rasmussen; he has above-average command, control and all, but he can’t match McClanahan or Boyle in their ability to flatten bullies with multiple throws. Rasmussen is heavily focused on the fastball, which can be great for throwing strikes, but he’s more of a contact maven quality than a touch of a warrior. What makes McClanahan special is that he can be both. Boyle has really only been a piece in the majors, but he’s shown he can be both when he’s in charge.
I expect this group to be better than last season with the mix of different skills and the return to pitcher-friendly Trop. This group has a pretty big upside if at least one of Boyle or McClanahan could take a step forward in 2026, and they honestly need at least one of them to emerge as a viable weapon in the postseason. No one else in the rotation can match the raw stuff of these two. Boyle’s trends in both his command and control since joining the Rays have been exciting and better than expected, and McClanahan appears to be fully healthy for the first time in a while.
This was an interesting exercise to do for all job groups. It was definitely more challenging for the rotation due to the fluidity of the roles for certain guys, so I’m not going to do this for the bullpen as I originally planned.
My very lazy analysis of the bullpen is that they will be good because they are always pretty good. They were first in xFIP (to take GMS into account) and third in scent rate last season, while maintaining above-average control and command data. The roles are very fluid, but I do think Baker and Bigge could see more potential for higher leverage than you might expect. If the bullpen is struggling, there are plenty of internal candidates (including some interesting NRIs) who can help. The front office also has sufficient resources to meet any needs during the year. Manuel Rodriguez should also provide nice reinforcements later in the summer.
#Start #pitching #Outlook