2026 Sam F. Davis bets at a glance

Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve action kicks off on the opposite coast of Florida on Saturday as the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs kicks off the first of two qualifying stakes on the Gulf Coast circuit. Saturday’s race will award 20-10-6-4-2 qualifying points to the top five finishers in the 1 1/16-mile stakes and also serve as preparation for the ESMARK Tampa Bay Derby on March 7 at the track.

1. Confession (2-1 odds on the morning line): Comes in second in a race at Gulfstream Park, but that was ahead of Nearly, who won the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park last weekend. If he takes a step forward in that race, he will be difficult to beat with Flavien Prat on board.

JOCKEY: Flavien Prat; TRAINER: Brad Cox

2. Epic desire (15-1): He just got his first career win here in his fifth attempt. The speed figure was unconvincing and painted him as a long shot in this area.

JOCKEY: Samy Camacho; TRAINER: Todd Pletcher

3. The Cougar (6-1): Made a solid debut in a Gulfstream first special weights race, with a sharp speed figure. Could be a contender here, but he’s also competing in a first race at Gulfstream on Saturday.

JOCKEY: Javier Castellano; TRAINER: Gustavo Delgado

4. Game before (20-1): Won his debut at Aqueduct on December 10, despite stumbling at the start. Has worked well in Florida and could register a surprise here.

JOCKEY: Luis Rivera Jr.; TRAINER: Chad Summers

5. Ocelli (12-1): Still a virgin after three attempts, although he finished second and third at this distance. Could be a late factor in the superfecta, but hard to back up for the victory spot.

JOCKEY: Joseph D. Ramos; TRAINER: Whit Beckman

6. Defector (8-5): Was a close second in the Remsen Stakes to a top Kentucky Derby contender in Paladin. Has a nice series of training sessions for this and emerges as a deserving favorite.

JOCKEY: Irad Ortiz Jr.; TRAINER: Todd Pletcher

7. Wayne’s Law (30-1): Was third in a Delta Downs stakes last time. The morning line price is very attractive for a foal whose speed figures are competitive with a large part of the field.

JOCKEY: Marcos Meneses; TRAINER: Amador Sanchez

8. Maximum capacity (30-1): Tired after making a middle move in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes. Hasn’t shown much reason to think he’ll like the distance.

JOCKEY: Jevian Toledo; TRAINER: Richard Sillaman

9. Dr Kapur (5-1): Disappointed in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes after two promising first attempts. Should be a factor in his best effort.

JOCKEY: Samuel Marin; TRAINER: Saffie Joseph Jr.

THE CHOICE: Defector

LIVE LONG SHOT: Wayne’s Law

SUPERFECT: 6-1-9-7

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