This week we will go into it in more detail Ted Noffeythe one-length winner of the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance on Oct. 31 in Del Mar. The de facto champion 2-year-old male leads the The road to the Kentucky Derby standings with 40 points.
Race summary: Ted Noffey has been simply perfect so far. He won all four of his starts by a length or more and cemented the Eclipse Award as champion 2-year-old male with his third straight Grade 1 victory in the 1 1/16-mile Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Del Mar.
The one-length Breeders’ Cup victory followed an 8 ½-length romp in the seven-furlong Spendthrift Farm Hopeful Stakes and a 2 ¾-length win in the 1 1/16-mile Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity.
Ted Noffey chased second betting pick Brant from second as 4-5 favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and was within a half-length of the Del Mar Futurity winner over half a mile in :46.99. He took command under regular rider John Velazquez as he entered the stretch and finished with a final quarter mile in :25.23, taking an emphatic victory over second place Mr. AP.
“I was very confident,” Velazquez said. “He’s an easy horse to ride, that’s it. Just let him do his thing and he’s happy because he’s done every race.”
Speed figures: Ted Noffey posted a new career-best 114 Equibase Speed Figure for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile win, a 10-point improvement over his previous record in the Hopeful. Daily Race Forms Beyer Speed Figures considered the Juvenile to be in line with his two previous Grade 1 wins, as he earned a 98 for the Hopeful and a 97 for both the Breeders’ Futurity and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Those are high speed numbers for a 2 year old in the fall.
Running Style: Ted Noffey has great tactical speed which allows him to stalk or keep the pace and pounce when he gets his signal from Velazquez. That’s a running style that should keep him out of trouble during preliminary races on the Kentucky Derby route and his high cruising speed would also be a big positive in the Kentucky Derby in a 20-horse field.
Family tree notes: Ted Noffey is a son of Into Mischief, Spendthrift Farm’s standout stallion, who has been the leading sire in North America every year since 2019. Into Mischief leads Not This Time with more than $7.7 million in offspring revenue through 2025, holding the top spot for the seventh year in a row.
Into Mischief is the sire of 2020 Kentucky Derby winner and Horse of the Year Authentic, 2021 Kentucky Derby winner Mandaloun and 2025 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve, Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets and DraftKings Travers Stakes winner Sovereignty. Sovereignty has a very good chance of giving Into Mischief his second Horse of the Year winner as a sire and both Ted Noffey and Sovereignty should win the Eclipse Award for the 2-year-old male and 3-year-old male divisions respectively.
Ted Noffey’s dam (mother) is winner of the grade 2 stakes Streak of Luck, by Old Fashioned. Streak of Luck’s stakes win came at one mile on the grass, as did her two graded stakes.
As a two-time winner at 1 1/16 miles, Ted Noffey should be able to excel at 1 1/8 miles and then, as for many others, the real test of distance will come when he attempts 1 ¼ miles for the first time.
Derby potential: Only two Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners (Street Sense in 2006 and Nyquist in 2015) have won the Kentucky Derby. It talks about how hard it is to be an elite two-year-old and maintain that form all the way through the first Saturday in May, but also how hard it is to win the Kentucky Derby. It’s a huge field with the potential for many setbacks – a slow start, bad weather, traffic, pace, 150,000 screaming fans – making winning the first jewel of the Triple Crown a combination of having a perfectly tuned three-year-old Thoroughbred and a roll of the dice.
Ted Noffey has all the ingredients you’re looking for in the long run, but six months is an eternity in horse racing and simply getting a horse into the race in top condition is a huge challenge. Can Ted Noffey become the third horse to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Kentucky Derby? Of course…but as always, the opposite opinion is a much more likely outcome.
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