With spring training starting in less than two weeks, Dan Szymborski has published the first version of the ZiPS projections on Fangraphs for the 2026 rankings. There will still be free agents and there will still be injuries and there will be trades that can and will change the projections before the regular season starts. Still, this gives us a general idea of where teams stand relative to each other, and for the Cincinnati Reds it’s not great.
ZiPs has the Reds in third place in the division, one game higher than the St. Louis Cardinals, but eight games behind the Brewers and nine behind the Chicago Cubs. Their projected record? 78-84. That would be a small step back from where they finished in the first season under manager Terry Francona.
Last year the Reds certainly had some injuries that played a role. Injuries plague every team, but Cincinnati saw some of their best players struggle throughout the year. Hunter Greene made just 19 starts this year. Elly De La Cruz played in every game, but his performance in the second half, as he dealt with a quad tear, was nothing like the All-Star shortstop’s previous season and a half. Chase Burns was on the injured list for a month (and didn’t join the team until late June). Tyler Stephenson spent more than a month on the injured list during the year with an oblique injury and a broken thumb. And then there’s Rhett Lowder who missed the entire season.
Without adding much to the roster, and with the loss of several players to free agency you might be able to argue that they haven’t improved the overall roster at all, Cincinnati is once again in a situation where there are some advantages to being a contending team, but it will likely take very few injuries and the high upside players to perform up to that high edge if it’s going to happen. That doesn’t usually happen, but it’s not unheard of either.
In a perfect scenario, or close to it, the Reds could get healthy, high production from their entire starting rotation and offense from guys like De La Cruz, Tyler Stephenson, Matt McLain, Noelvi Marte and Sal Stewart, while the rest of the offense is solid. That team would probably be pretty good and get a lot of wins. But the downside of that is that there are some injuries and not everyone is playing at their best and the team is hovering in that 75-80 winning margin where a few lucky or unlucky bounces make the difference between being bad and being okay when it comes to the club’s record.
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