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Betting on the NFL playoffs doesn’t have to mean choosing between short-priced favorites or pure long shots. By comparing the market-implied Super Bowl odds to the odds derived from PFF’s NFL Power Rankings, we can identify value at multiple levels of the odds board.
In this article, we focus on three Super Bowl futures with different price points: one competitor priced below +1000, one in the +1000 to +2000 range, and one above +2000.
That search yields three clear candidates at different levels: the Denver Broncos (+700) at the top of the market, the Jacksonville Jaguars (+1300) in the mid-range and the Green Bay Packers (+2200) as a longer-shot playoff team with the profile of a disruptor.
| Team | PFF CC | DraftKings CC | DIFFERENCE. | PFF SB | DesignKings S.B | DIFFERENCE. |
| Broncos | 26% | 26% | 0% | 15% | 13% | 2% |
| Raven | 9% | 9% | 0% | 5% | 4% | 1% |
| Chargers | 8% | 8% | 0% | 4% | 3% | 1% |
| Texans | 14% | 14% | 0% | 8% | 7% | 1% |
| Bills | 14% | 15% | -1% | 8% | 8% | 0% |
| Jaguars | 12% | 15% | -3% | 7% | 7% | 0% |
| Packers | 8% | 8% | 0% | 4% | 4% | 0% |
| Steelers | 3% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% |
| Buccaneers | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | -1% |
| Panthers | 1% | 2% | -1% | 0% | 1% | -1% |
| Bears | 8% | 9% | -1% | 3% | 4% | -1% |
| 49ers | 20% | 21% | -1% | 8% | 11% | -3% |
| Patriots | 14% | 21% | -7% | 7% | 10% | -3% |
| Rams | 21% | 24% | -3% | 11% | 15% | -4% |
| Eagles | 13% | 17% | -4% | 5% | 9% | -4% |
| Seahawks | 28% | 29% | -1% | 13% | 17% | -4% |
Denver Broncos (+700)
The Denver Broncos are third in Super Bowl odds, but currently profile as the team with the best chance to secure the AFC’s No. 1 seed in a weaker conference. That matters in January, especially considering Denver’s high-altitude home field advantage.
From a path-based standpoint, the Broncos appear closer to a top prospect than their +700 price suggests. That thing was built in the trenches. Denver ranks first in team pass blocking, giving Sean Payton the freedom to stay aggressive, while the defense is one of only two units with multiple top-10 players under all-out pressure, Nik Bonitto and Zach Allen.
As a unit, the Broncos rank third in pressure rate and third in EPA per run allowed, a combination that travels well and will become even more valuable when Denver hosts during the playoffs.
While offensive consistency remains a question, elite protection, a dominant defense and home field advantage give the Broncos a clearer Super Bowl path than the market is pricing in at this number.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+1300)
At +1300, the Jacksonville Jaguars are priced almost exactly in line with PFF’s Super Bowl projections, but the underlying profile still makes them one of the strongest bets at this odds level.
Jacksonville is moving in the right direction at the most important position, with Trevor Lawrence becoming the second-highest rated quarterback in the NFL over the past five weeks, combining aggressiveness with efficiency. During that stretch, he has generated an average target depth of 10.7 yards while posting a turnover-worthy play rate of 1.0%, a rare combination that raises the offense’s ceiling without introducing volatility.
That late-season surge was aided by improved roster balance. The addition of Jakobi Meyers, the emergence of Parker Washington in the slot and the return of Brenton Strange have done that Jacksonville answers throughout the formation, even without Travis Hunter. Defensively, the Jaguars have matched the offense and rank third in EPA allowed per game over the same five-week period, with Devin Lloyd anchoring the unit as the third-highest ranked linebacker in the NFL and the only one with a PFF grade above 80.0 as a run defender, pass rusher and coverage player.
From a matchup perspective, Jacksonville is also well positioned. As a likely No. 2 seed, the Jaguars could face a first-round tie against the Los Angeles Chargers or Buffalo Bills, neither of which profile as a significant non-matching. The key stretch comes in Round 2, where New England would be the most likely opponent.
The Patriots benefited from the easiest schedule in the NFL and were less convincing against playoff-caliber teams, splitting their two games with Buffalo and losing to Pittsburgh and escape with narrow wins over Tampa Bay and Baltimore.
Jacksonville has already shown it can win in hostile environments – including a recent road victory in Denver – making its projected postseason path one of the most favorable among teams in this odds range.
Green Bay Packers (+2200)
The Green Bay Packers are on their way to a seventh-place finish for the third straight season, and while recent playoff losses – a divisional round loss in 2023 and a wild-card loss in 2024 – may dampen market confidence, that experience matters for a team priced at +2200.
Green Bay has been here before and the expectation is that they will approach Week 18 differently this time, likely resting key starters to avoid the season-ending injuries that hurt them last year. For a young selection that broke ground in January, simply participating in the play-offs in a healthier manner increases the basic result.
The Packers’ appeal is rooted in their control of explosive play. Defensively, they rank fifth in explosive success rate allowed, while the offense ranks second in explosive success rate, giving Green Bay a rare ability to both limit chunk plays and generate them. It shows in the details: Under Jeff Hafley, the Packers were one of the league’s best tackling teams, ranking first in yards after catch allowed per completion and first in the team’s tackling class.
A potential Round 2 matchup with San Francisco is an obvious concern given Kyle Shanahan’s playoff success against Matt LaFleur, but this version of the 49ers defense ranks 31st in defensive success rate, the weakest profile in that span.
At this price, Green Bay doesn’t need a clean path – just a few swing games – and their explosive play profile gives them just that kind of advantage.
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