WEEKEND OVERVIEW WEEK 2
So the first game at Cheltenham has been and as far as Cheltenham goes, it wasn’t a great two days for us, but that didn’t work out, we came back in style on Sunday, with two tips and two winners at 7/1 (SP 9/1) and 3/1 (SP 4/1).
We undid all our bad two days in Cheltenham and made a profit on top of that, and our members couldn’t have been happier. Some even did a cheeky double and were rewarded tenfold.
We have now gained 25.5 points for the jumping season and that is in just 18 days. We fly along.
More on our winners on Sunday, but let’s look at our tips in Cheltenham first and then our tips in Aintree on Sunday.
We also left a few horses to follow at the end, so keep reading…..
DAY 1 CHELTENHAM
Cheltenham started for us with an expensive tip, the Ben Pauling, Whatsupwithyou. I thought he rode up nicely and jumped well overall. He was just battling it out at the top of the hill when a stumble caused the jockey to lose his shoes. He could not recover and was pulled up. It was too far away to know what would have happened, but I have seen him come close from a similar position at Cheltenham in the past.
He is someone who should stay on the sidelines next time if the race and conditions are good, but the bottom line is that he had a nice race before bad luck struck.
Next up was Un Sens A La Vie, who I had complete confidence would be in the race. He was far too enthusiastic, he didn’t jump smoothly and to make matters worse I’m not sure why Sam Twiston Davies found himself in a battle for the lead as soon as the tires went up. I don’t criticize Sam much, I just try to make an effort, calm him down and just overcome his obstacles. The horse clearly still has a lot to learn and next time I would teach him to settle down and that will improve his jumping. He’s far from the finished article and maybe not as good as I first thought, but I still think he’s better than what we saw and could be one down the line when he matures.
Our final two selections for Day 1 were Matata and Third Time Lucki. Big mention to Third Time Lucki who was unfortunately fatally injured. Thoughts are with everyone connected to the horse.
Matata was poor, he didn’t jump with his usual enthusiasm, he made way too many mistakes and maybe with a rating of 160 it was a bad decision on my part. We live and learn.
DAY 2 CHELTENHAM
Day 2 started with two selections in Transmission and Hoe Joly Smoke. The transmission ran a good race and maybe next time it will be a strip fitter. While Hoe Joly Smoke traveled strongly and reached the final gate, Harry Skelton was sitting pretty. I thought we had a nice 12/1 winner here but he just couldn’t get up the hill and we had to settle for 3rd place. I was very confident when I watched the race because you don’t see many horses that travel so well under Harry Skelton and don’t win. The radar worked fine, but the Cheltenham hill ended our chances.
Gowel Road and Winning Smut were our next two selections. Both were very poor, no excuses here and not much to write about other than poor selections.
The last tip of the day was Intense Approach and this race really annoyed me. We secured the value and got a nice price, but if I had known they were leaving out the last three fences he wouldn’t have made a bet. Intense Approach needs to jump, it needs to gallop, it doesn’t need a flat race.
If I had known they had left out the last three fences I would have bet on Pied Piper, who is in excellent form, although the Cheltenham hill took that horse out so we would have had to settle for second. Still, I’m just giving you an example of how things can change when the race changes.
There’s not much we can do in that situation and it was pretty much the summary of the two days for us.
SUNDAY IN AINTREE
What a day it turned out to be. I felt a bit hard done by at Cheltenham, if the truth be told. Mistakes, horses fatally injured, the Cheltenham Hill, bad rides. They’re excuses, but I know things were going against us.
I didn’t want to let the two days spoil the celebration and the start we had already made to the National Hunting Season. Confidence was still high and I just felt like we would bounce back.
Sam Twiston Davies made up for poor Cheltenham with a great ride at Torn And Frayed. We had so much bad luck with Torn And Frayed in Chepstow that I felt we deserved it. He lined up on the same handicap mark of 128 and if he hadn’t made a mistake at Chepstow he would have won by half the course and wouldn’t have been on a mark of 128. How he drifted and went off the track at 4/1 is beyond me, but it’s still a nice 3/1 winner for us.
Hitman in the next one went away at 9/1 and we continued at 7/1. I went back to 9/1 because that was way too high a price. Last year he set a higher mark in this race and even though he hadn’t won in a number of years, 153 was a dangerous mark in my opinion. He got a great ride from Freddie Gingell and he won as easily as you like to end the weekend on a high for us. Magical things and Cheltenham were a distant memory.
HORSES TO FOLLOW
DOUBLE POWERFUL is a horse that can be followed. He made his pursuit debut on Saturday in Cheltenham and did not jump well at all. He still stayed at the back of the field despite being bumped and hitting about five fences along the way. If he can brush up on his jumping, which you think he should as he is six years old and still working over the fences, he will show up somewhere. He even stays a bit further and I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets close next time, in the right race.
HOW JOLY SMOKE traveled very well but was just caught by Cheltenham Hill. Known as a Sandown specialist in the past, he can be followed and I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes to the Ladbrokes Gold Cup at Newbury. A flat track like Newbury should suit this smooth traveling horse. While this isn’t Ante Post advice, 25/1 with William Hill seems like a high price depending on what happens with his handicap. He may end up at the bottom of the handicap.
LONG DRAW ran an eye-catching race in the Pertemps Hurdle Qualifier. Before the race and on a steady tour, Olly Murphy said his season target was the Pertemps. He wasn’t supposed to win here and ruin his handicap score. It was all about qualifying and he did that in 4th place. I wouldn’t be surprised if he saw a few ‘stinkers’ in his next two starts to lower his handicap and get the Cheltenham rating 134. I’m picking up these little snippets and again, we’ll see what happens next time before we get involved with Ante Post, but it’s one for the notebook.
CONCLUSION
We are currently in great shape and are heading for a flyer with over 25 points already and a 77% return on investment. It’s about keeping this going and while I know we’ll have bad days, it’s about how we bounce back just like we did on Sunday.
As you can see from my reviews, I mean business and I don’t miss a beat.
I’m looking to break my 2016 record of 174 points and I’m hungrier than ever.
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