The first 2025 College Football Playoff Rankings are officially out and the race for a shot at the National Championship is quickly heating up. The CFP Selection Committee released its first Top 25 on November 4, giving fans and bettors their first real look at how the picture could unfold after the season.
But while the CFP rankings show where each team stands today, our advanced projection models tell a different story. Using data from our advanced analytical model, we can compare the committee’s Top 12 with our odds for each team to win the championship, and their real Dimer rankings.. This side-by-side analysis shows which teams are overvalued, undervalued, or perfectly positioned heading into the final stretch of the season.
Whether you’re tracking college football playoff odds, building futures bets, using the rankings for week-to-week college football betting, or just debating with your friends about who really belongs in the Top 12, this analysis provides a clearer picture of the real contenders versus the committee favorites.
#1 Ohio State Buckeyes (8-0)
True Dimers Ranking: #1 (30.0% probability, +230 odds)
As defending champions, Ohio State remains at the top, both in the eyes of the committee and in the Dimers model. Their undefeated start and dominant defense continue to cement that status. Unless they make a mistake, they look like the team to beat, and their sportsbooks odds of +230 are consistent with both rankings.
#2. Indiana Hoosiers (9-0)
True Dimers Ranking: #2 (15.0% probability, +500 chances)
Indiana’s 9-0 streak is impressive, and the model agrees that they are the second most likely team to win the championship thus far. But the gap with Ohio State is still significant in the probability model, with only half the probability as the Buckeyes. Their soft remaining schedule gives them a chance to move up, but the ceiling looks like No. 2 unless Ohio State falters.
#3Texas A&M Aggies (8-0)
True Dimers Ranking: #7 (7.0% probability, +1100 odds)
Texas A&M earned the committee’s third-place ranking, but the model places them seventh. While they’ve done a lot right, the model sees them as slightly behind the other contenders, and specifically projects them outside the top four teams to earn a first-round bye in the playoffs.
#4 Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1)
True Dimers Ranking: #3 (12.2% probability, +750 odds)
Alabama’s climb from an early loss is clearly respected by both the committee and the model. With a strong resume and coaching, they are a legitimate contender. If they finish strong and win the SEC, they could move into the top two, but for now they’re just behind Ohio State and Indiana.
#5 Georgia Bulldogs (7-1)
True Dimers Ranking: #5 (7.8% probability, +1300 odds)
Georgia ranks fifth in both rankings, remarkably consistent. Their path is a little more challenging than the one before them, and the model reflects that by giving them half the chance to win it all compared to Indiana, but they remain very much in the hunt.
#6 Ole Miss Rebels (8-1)
True Dimers Ranking: #8 (6.1% probability, +2000 chances)
Ole Miss is ranked No. 6 by the committee, but the model has them at No. 8. Their single loss and somewhat uneven wins are reflected in the slightly lower probability. Still, they are in a strong position and if they win, they could put up a serious fight.
#7 BYU Cougars (8-0)
True Dimers Rankings: #9 (3.6% probability, +2500 chances)
BYU is undefeated (8-0) and has a lot of upside, but the model and committee are still cautious. The universe is watching to see if they can back up wins against elite programs behind electric QB Bear Bachmeier.
#8 Texas Tech Red Raiders (8-1)
True Dimers Ranking: #9 (3.6% probability, +2500 chances)
Texas Tech is ranked 8th by committee and 9th by model – very similar placements. The model’s lower win probability suggests more skepticism about their ability to control the table or win the whole thing.
#9 Oregon Ducks (7-1)
True Dimers Ranking: #4 (9.1% probability, +1100 odds)
The Ducks are underrated by the committee (9th) compared to Dimers’ model (#4). Their 7-1 record is solid and the model considers them a bigger threat than their rankings suggest. Their remaining schedule does not include games against teams ranked in the Top 20 and could see them climb their way into position for a bye.
#10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-2)
True Dimers Ranking: #6 (7.4% probability, +1100 odds)
Notre Dame gets some respect from both sides, ranking 10th by the committee and as high as 6th under the Dimers model. That indicates more benefits than the committee attributes to Fighting Irish. They have two losses, but if they dominate from here they can make a push.
#11 Texas Longhorns (7-2)
True Dimers Ranking: #10 (2.1% probability, +4500 chances)
Texas is ranked No. 11 on the committee’s list, but moves up to No. 10 according to the model. They have talent and upside, but the model gives them a relatively slim chance of winning the championship. Their path is difficult with upcoming games against Georgia and Texas A&M, and they will need QB Arch Manning to step up in big spots.
#12 Oklahoma Sooners (7-2)
True Dimers Rankings: #12 (1.0% probability, +10,000 chances)
Oklahoma rounds out the top 12 in the commission’s news release. The model considers them the lowest of the group, with a championship chance of barely 1%.
Where is Memphis?
Under CFP Selection Committee rules, the top five ranked conference champions receive automatic bids. Currently, Memphis would occupy the last spot, despite being outside the entire Top 25. Dimers assigns a 0% chance of Memphis winning the championship.
How to Use Dimers’ College Football Playoff Predictions
Using the committee’s rankings, the official order of how teams are currently viewed, while the Dimers model supports data “real ranking” based on underlying strength and win-all odds.
When a team’s model ranking is higher than the committee (e.g. Oregon) suggests upward value.
When a team’s model ranking is lower than the committee’s (for example, Texas A&M), it suggests that the odds or narrative may have slightly overrated them relative to the model.
For betting purposes, matching model odds to future odds can highlight value bets or stories worth investigating.
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