10 stats that define the Maple Leafs first 10 games of the season

There are so many details to pay attention to during the opening month of the year that some data gets lost in the background. We’ve found 10 stats that define the first 10 games of the Maple Leafs season, neatly summarizing the team’s strengths, weaknesses, highlights, and potential areas of focus for the next phase of the year.

12.2% shooting percentage in all situations for Auston Matthews

Is it just a result of poor shooting luck? That would be a bit naive and too simplistic. There are times when Matthews has shown his usual speed, but it hasn’t happened with enough frequency to permanently assuage any concerns. Matthews has scored five goals and eight points in 10 games, he’s playing well and the threat of his shot creates more time and space for his linemates. The opportunities are there, but Matthews will need to achieve a conversion rate of more than 12 percent throughout the year.

14.8% power play success rate, ranked 27th in the NHL

Toronto’s power play is a collection of some of the game’s best offensive talents, so it’s frustrating to see the man advantage drop to a 14.8 percent success rate. Prior to Wednesday’s game, the Maple Leafs are ranked 27th in the NHL. That’s simply not good enough for a group that includes Matthews, Matthew Knies, John Tavares, William Nylander and Morgan Rielly.

You need your best players to be your best players, and while that has often been the case, the power play needs more dynamic puck movement, along with a collaborative approach to getting goals off the net.

42.8% percent, William Nylander’s involvement in all Leafs goals

William Nylander isn’t exactly a one-man offense per se, but he carries a disproportionate share of the scoring share. Nylander has been involved in 42.8 percent of the Maple Leafs’ goals to date, with three goals and 15 points in 10 games, ranking him 8th in NHL scoring.

61.61% percent expected goals at 5-on-5 for Maccelli-Tavares-Nylander

Nylander continues to be moved around the lineup and was placed alongside Bobby McMann and Auston Matthews for Tuesday’s win over the Flames. You still have to factor in the idea that the Leafs will be proactive at the deadline and that these combinations won’t be fully committed throughout the calendar year, but Berube has found a second line that has worked, at least against relatively weaker competition to start the year. Tavares is the team’s most consistent player, Nylander is its most dynamic playmaker and Maccelli is finding his feet and getting puck touches with his two star linemates.

19 dangerous shots on target for Matthew Knies

39.9 percent of offensive zone time

Berube preaches a north-south style of play, but will this necessarily work for the Leafs? Toronto controls the offensive zone just 39.9 percent of the time, the 25th best total in the NHL. The league average is 41.1 percent via NHL Edge. And this speaks to the idea that the Maple Leafs are giving up too many one-off possessions, getting one shot attempt before the opponent clears the zone and resets the play.

Getting pucks deep and maintaining the zone are hallmarks of Berube’s instruction, but the Maple Leafs punt far too often, especially considering the caliber of their star forwards. This will remain a work in progress.

25 goals allowed at 5-on-5

Rush defense remains a major problem for the Maple Leafs and while Berube has been impressed with his team’s ability to score, the same cannot be said about the defensive corps. Toronto has allowed 25 goals at 5-on-5, the sixth-worst total in the NHL ahead of Wednesday’s games, offsetting the contributions of the sixth-ranked offense.

4 goals from defenders

While there has been a more concerted effort to get into the rush and generate offense, the Maple Leafs defense corps has scored four goals in 10 games: two goals from Rielly, one each from Jake McCabe and Oliver Ekman-Larsson. By comparison, New Jersey’s Dougie Hamilton registered four goals, leading all defensemen to date.

16 goals allowed in 2nd period

We’re not going to call it a house of horrors, but the second period was not kind to the Maple Leafs. Toronto has given up a league-worst 16 goals in the second period and often has to fight back in the third period to save some points.

It’s not purely a function of run-and-shoot hockey either, as Toronto has a minus-eight goal differential through the second period. Toronto usually gets off to a strong start, as evidenced by a plus-four goal differential (11-7) through the first frame, before the structure collapses or the team is overtaken on the counter-attack. We’re not going to get too obsessed with the splits just yet, but there is something to be said for the fact that a pause often occurs in the middle of the game.

-3.2 goals saved above expectations from Anthony Stolarz

Stolarz is facing the biggest workload of his career and has saved -3.2 goals above expectations in all situations via MoneyPuck. He’s not getting much support from his defensemen, as the Maple Leafs are giving up far too many opportunities due to crowds, but he’s also not in the same form as last year, where some felt he should have received Vezina compensation despite missing two months due to injury.

We’re inclined to believe these poor numbers are a function of his workload, but an .886 save percentage through eight games is almost cause for concern, and we’ll have to see how the Leafs handle his minutes the rest of the year.