Despite the global challenges, the GDP of India to grow by 6.5% in tax 2026: Crisil – The Times of India

The actual GDP growth of India is expected to remain stable with 6.5 percent for the tax 2026, despite the global uncertainties as a result of geopolitical shifts and trade tensions caused by US Tariff, a report of Crisil Intelligence that was revealed on Thursday.
The prediction of the creditworthiness agency depends on two important factors: a normal monsoon and stable raw material prices, both of which are expected to keep food inflation under control.
The agency predicted that the cooling of food inflation, tax benefits of the trade union budget 2025-26 and lower loan costs will increase discretionary consumer expenditure. The report also noted that the economic growth of India would gradually return to pre-building levels, because the impact of fiscal stimulus would fade and the high-base effect is decreasing.
Despite these adjustments, high -frequency data from the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) suggested that the country would continue to lead among large global economies.
“The resilience of India is being tested again,” says Amish Mehta, director and CEO of Crisil Ltd. “In recent years we have built guarantees against external shocks, including strong economic growth, a low on current account deficit, manageable external external debts and ample forex reserves. These offer policies policy.”
The MD added that persistent investment and efficiency improvements will support the expansion of medium term. “We expect that both production and services will stimulate growth by Tax 2031,” he said.
Sectoral growth
Crisil expected the production sector to grow by 9 percent between tax 2025 and 2031 every year, an increase of 6 percent in pre-building decade. The service sector, on the other hand, is expected to undergo slower growth, although it will remain the primary engine of growth.
As a result, it is expected that the share of production in GDP in 2031 will increase from 17 percent in tax 2025 to 20 percent.
The report also expected a further softening of food inflation in the tax 2026, which reduced the total inflation levels. Inflation was already relaxed in the tax 2025 due to lower non-food inflation, although food prices had risen.
Moreover, the rating agency also expected a reduction of 50-75 basic points in the next tax year.
India has reinforced its growthemia compared to advanced economies by expanding infrastructure and economic reforms, said Dharmakirti Joshi, chief economist at Crisil Ltd.
“Healthy GDP growth, a shortage in the low account and adequate Forex reserves offer a buffer and policy flexibility, but the country is not isolation against external shocks. The risks for the growth ear of 6.5% are therefore tilted to the Neerel tilted uncertainty due to the tarief war,” added tarief war.
The report also emphasized the sharp focus of the government on the expansion of capacities in emerging industries, increasing localization and strengthening the most important value chains. Initiatives such as Make in India, the phased production program and the production -linked Incentive (PLI) schedule already produce positive results between sectors.
However, Crisil also warned that the global trade environment continues to be a challenge. Current uncertainties about rates and trade policy can make it more difficult for India to acquire advanced technologies, scale up industries and stimulate exports.