De Amerikaanse president Donald Trump wordt geconfronteerd met de meest consequente beslissing van het buitenlands beleid van zijn presidentschap: of hij rechtstreeks de escalerende oorlog tussen Israël en Iran wil aangaan door Israël te helpen Iran’s zwaar versterkte Fordo-nucleaire verrijkingslocatie te vernietigen-een handeling die nucleaire gesprekken zou kunnen bezorgen, een burgerregiooorlog of het resetten van het kernprogramma van de Iran door can do violence.Trump has insisted on a nuclear deal with Iran is still ‘feasible’, but also warned the inhabitants of Tehran to evacuate, ominating on truth social posting: “Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!”
Why it matters
- According to a NYT report, Fordo, deeply buried under a mountain, can only be reached by the 30,000 pounds GBU-57 massive ordnance penetrator of the US Army, the “Bunker Buster”-which is exclusively delivered by B-2 Stealth Bommenkers. Israel does not own either.
- An American strike would formally diving America into a conflict that Trump campaigned twice to avoid. It would put an end to the negotiations Iran says it is still open, and it would test Trump’s foreign policy instincts “America first” non-interventionism with his desire to seem tough and to achieve a profit of foreign policy.
- The Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned: “If President Trump is sincere about diplomacy and is interested in stopping this war, the following steps are consistent.” He added: “One phone call from Washington is needed to snore someone like Netanyahu.”
The Big Picture: Tehran on EdgeThe Trump government has deployed extra military assets in the region and is now debating how much to go. Trump broke down his G7 trip in Canada and returned to Washington and said, “As soon as I leave here, we will do something.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claims that Israel has now has the entire air -superiority about Tehran and the aim has explained: “The elimination of the nuclear program, the elimination of ballistic missile production capacity and the elimination of the axis of terrorism.”The air strikes of Israel on Tehran expanded on the fifth day of escalating conflict, after Monday’s warnings for around 300,000 inhabitants to evacuate before planned attacks.By Tuesday morning people who left the city were seen. Shops and the historic Grand Bazaar were closed. Nevertheless, the Iranian authorities claimed “everything is under control” and said that no official guidelines had been issued. Zoom in: the Fordo factorSo far, Israel Fordo has not destroyed the most resilient part of Iran’s nuclear network.Fordo is the “crux of this thing,” says Brett McGurk, who served among four presidents. Destroying it would seriously restore the nuclear ambitions of Iran, but only an American bomb can do it. Military analysts agree that the multiple precision attacks of American B-2-bombers would cost in a coordinated mission.According to the New York Times, the Pentagon has already rehearsed this scenario, and concludes that it requires a series of bombs “in the same hole”.
What they say
- Trump: “I am not looking for a cease -the fire, we look better than a cease -the fire.” The American president said he was looking for “an end, a real goal, no cease-fire”, adding that he wanted a “complete task” by Iran.
- Lindsey Graham (R-SC): “If diplomacy is not successful … I will present to President Trump to go everything in … If that means flying with Israel, fly with Israel.”
- YOAV Gallant, former Israeli Minister of Defense: “The work must be done by the United States by Israel.”
- Araghchi from Iran: “If the aggression stops, it is clear that the land will be prepared for a return to diplomacy.”
- Michael Singh, Washington Institute: “Iran will not be able to match Israel from a military position. So it will look for other benefits.”
- G7 leaders have released a joint statement: “Iran can never have a nuclear weapon” and called for “broader de-escalation”.
- China accused Trump on Tuesday of escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, and said he poured “oil” on an already fleeting situation after he warned the inhabitants of Tehran to “evacuate immediately”.
- Spokesperson Guo Jiakun of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs Guo Jiakun said: “Fueling the flames, pouring oil, making threats and pressure pressure will not help to promote the de-escalation of the situation, but will only intensify and broaden the conflict.” Spread. “
Between the linesTrump navigates intense political pressure from Hawkish Republicans who urge action, Maga warn conservatives against endless wars and strange allies who demand restraint. He seems to calibrate a strategy that enables him to use military power as a threat while still retaining the illusion of diplomatic off-roots.Tucker Carlson, once a loyal Trump Surrogaat, shot every movement towards direct involvement and called the president “complicit in the war.” Trump broke back: “Someone explains to Kooky Tucker Carlson that Iran can’t have a nuclear weapon!”In the meantime, populist voices such as Charlie Kirk and Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene warn that deeper involvement runs the risk of alienating Trump’s support. “This will cause a huge schism in Maga,” Kirk posted.
What Trump can do
- Sources told Reuters that Tehran Oman, Qatar and Saudi Aarabia had asked Trump to trace Trump to put pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to agree to an immediate cease -the fire. In return, according to two Iranian and three regional sources, Iran would show flexibility in nuclear negotiations.
- Diplomatic game: Dringing a deal with Iran under the threat of violence. Trump said, “They have to talk and they have to talk immediately.”
- Military leverage: Keep the Bunker-Buster threat alive, use it possible if diplomacy failed. If the only country with the means to destroy Fordo, the US will hold the decisive card.
- And Trump has already shown that he can say no to Israel: he blocked Netanyahu’s request to kill Ayatollah Khamei, according to AP -sources.
What is the followingIf Iran stops his retaliation rocket fire and indicates a deeper involvement in nuclear conversations, Trump can stop. If this is not the case, he could be a targeted strike on Fordo-A movement green lights that would shift the momentum of the war, but would escalate the risks dramatically.According to WSJ sources, the Iranians have canceled planned nuclear conversations with the US during the weekend, but remain open to negotiations-and Washington publicly tuned from Israeli strikes.Trump’s Defense Minister, Pete Hegseeth, said Fox News that the American troops remain ‘defensive’, but noted: “What you look at in real time is peace by strength and America first.”The Bottom LineTrump has a grim choice: diplomacy with strength with the threat of war or the president becomes those bunker busters in the heart of Iran. Because Israel demands more support and Tehran dangling diplomacy, the next 48 hours can decide whether Trump will go into history as a peacemaker or war president.(With input from agencies)
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