File photo: Female farmers sow paddy in a field in budgam. | Photocredit: Ani
The rice production of India is likely to rise to a record high in the 2025-26 season (September 2025-August 2026), even if the production of global grains could rise to a new peak of 2,375 million tons (MT), say predictions by international agencies. India’s wheat harvest this season is also estimated at a record high.
According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), rice production in the 2025-26 season predicted a record of 151 MT (ground base), an increase of 1 percent compared to last year and 11 percent compared to the 5-year average.
“The harvested area is predicted at 51.0 million hectares (MH), unchanged compared to last year’s record high and an increase of 7 percent compared to the 5-year average. The return (raw base) is estimated at a record of 4.44 tons/hectare,” it said.
Favorable conditions
The circumstances were favorable at the end of May and the sowing of rice reportedly progressed well and before the normal pace, said the foreign agricultural service, New Delhi post of USDA.
For the current season, rice production is estimated at 150 MT, higher than the third estimate of the Indian government of 149.07 MT.
Amis said that India was ready with Rabi and Zaid (summer) rice harvest, even when Southeast Asia passed between the seasons.
The projections for a new record -high rice production next season come in the midst of record stocks of rice with the Food Corporation of India (FCI). From 1 June, FCI record stocks of 37.99 MT had rice and 32.26 MT non -married pad (21.61 MT rice).
Weak question
The rice trade on the world market is relaxed due to poor demand and most buyers have huge stocks. According to traders, this situation will probably only change in the second half of July.
UN agency Food and Agriculture Organizations Agricultural Information Marketing System (AMIS) says that the production of rice in 2025-26 is seen on a “all time high”, as another abundant Asian harvest, in combination with good crops in Africa, Latin America and the Caribia and Europe, shortcomings in Northern America and Europe.
The International Grains Council (IGC) predicted record production of rice on 541 MT in 2025-26.
The USDA projected the wheat production in the 2025-26 (April-March) season with a record of 117.5 MT, the same as the estimate of the Indian government.
Favorable climate
“The harvested area is estimated at 32.9 million hectares, an increase of 3 percent compared to last year and 5 percent compared to the 5-year average. The yield is estimated at a record of 3.57 tons per hectare, a bit in last year,” said it.
The New Delhi Post of the USDA said from the start of the sowing season in October, until the end of the season in April, of satellite-derived observations indicated favorable irrigation water sources, soil moisture and progress.
This was mainly about the most important wheat -growing areas, especially in Uttar Pradesh (good for 30 percent of total production), Madhya Pradesh (23 percent), Punjab (15 percent), Rajasthan (10 percent) and Haryana (10 percent). “These conditions have rapid planting, crops, development and grain filling facilitates … Farmers were also encouraged by the government’s ruling of relatively higher minimum support prices than last year,” said the USDA.
Amis said the harvest in India was completed under favorable conditions.
From 1 June, wheat shares with FCI were at a three-year height of 36.93 MT. The Indian government bought 30.02 MT wheat this year, at a target of 32.27 MT. However, it is higher than the 26.6 MT obtained last year.
Published on June 15, 2025
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