Trump’s transactional diplomacy is the reform of the relationship between the US-Taiwan

Taipei, Taiwan – For decades, the US has played an important role in maintaining the delicate relationship between Taiwan and China, which Taiwan regards as part of its territory and has sworn to pursue unity with violence if necessary. But President Trump’s ‘America First’ ideology and the use of rates such as an economic weapon suggest that the administration can rewrite the rules of the US-China-Taiwan Playbook to meet his transaction style.

As is true in a large part of the world, long insights, intended to retain peace, are suddenly before negotiation. Although the US does not recognize Taiwan as an independent nation, it is contractually obliged to support the island’s defense program for years with arms sales. It is part of an official policy known as ‘strategic ambiguity’, was planning to ensure China again to launch an attack and to explain Taiwan to formally independence.

Trump has not said whether the US will defend Taiwan in the future, but he has complained about the relationship, and his administration has said that Taiwan must increase his defense budget to 10% of the gross domestic product.

Trump has also criticized Taiwan’s advanced semiconductor industry for ‘stealing’ American companies and endangered rates for Taiwanese chips. He then announced an investment of $ 100 billion on 3 March of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., or TSMC, maker of the world’s most advanced microchips, to build five new facilities in the United States. The move has some people in Taiwan who wonder how much the island democracy can count on the US and what the US would expect in exchange for that.

Chieh-Ting Yeh, director of the Think Tank US Taiwan Watch, said that since Trump’s conversations his conversations have shifted from a focus on shared values ​​such as democracy and human rights to negotiating power.

“Private everyone thinks:” Ok, if it becomes a transactional relationship, how do we play that game? “, Said Yeh.” In the short term, I just don’t think someone can certainly say what will happen. “

The news about TSMC, which has a reputation as a ‘Silicon Shield’ by Taiwan, has led to a heated debate about whether the company’s plan to build in the United States could undermine national security.

Former Taiwanese President Ma Ying -Jou, the current President William Lai attacked to support the deal: “Let’s not forget it, the US President Donald Trump is a businessman, and winning first comes for a TSMC enough? MA wrote in a Facebook report that produced more than 70,000 likes.

In a press conference last week with TSMC chairman CC Wei, LAI denied that the investment was the result of American pressure and noted that Trump had confirmed his dedication to regional stability in a joint explanation with Japanese Premier Shigeru Ishiba in February.

Lai also said that this year Taiwan will strive for the expenditure of defense up to 3% of GDP of approximately 2.4% the year before. Although that figure is far short of what the Trump government has requested, experts in Taiwan said that raising the budget to 10% of GDP would be impossible.

In the meantime, Taiwan’s legislative power supported by the opposition wants to reduce defense expenditure and criticize the current government for wasting editions, corruption and a combative approach to China, which, according to her, drives the island closer to the war.

President Trump castigered Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in a meeting in the White House on 28 February. In Taiwan, the fear of leaving the US by the US under Trump under Trump under the war in Ukraine.

(Saul Loeb / AFP / Getty images)

“Taiwan takes it with a grain of salt. I think there is a concept that fun, large, round figures create negotiating positions, but perhaps not the final figures that have been agreed,” said Wen-Ti Sung, a political scientist at National University of Australia specializing in Cross-Strait Relations.

The fears for American abandonment were brought to the attention by the US under the Trump under the war in Ukraine, which Taiwan has closely viewed as a barometer of the reliability of the US. “Both values ​​and long -term friendships are not sufficiently guaranteed to maintain American support,” Sung said.

Since his appointment, Trump has called Ukrainian President Volodyymyr Zensky a “dictator” and has suspended American military aid to Ukraine – and then agreed to resume. When a meeting between the two leaders, was intended to sign a deal that provided the US an interest in Ukrainian minerals in exchange for continuous financial support, dissolved in screaming, some in Taiwan considered it a worrying sign.

The slogan of ‘Today Ukraine, Tomorrow Taiwan’, made popular by the ruling party after Russia entered Ukraine in 2022, appeared after the Fallout on social media in Taiwan. One user on Threads commented under a message about Zensky: “Taiwan has to follow the lead of America, because we can only rely on them for military support.” Another answered: “Have you not seen what happened to Ukraine?

Others have speculated that if America turns from Ukraine and Europe, there can be more resources and willingness to support his allies in Asia and to prevent China: “comparison of Ukraine with Taiwan is a completely defective analogy,” James Hsieh wrote a Taiwanese political commentator, on social media. “I personally hope that the war in Russia-Ukraine will end quickly, so that the US can fully prepare for the Indo-Pacific.”

Ukrainians and their supporters have signs in Taipei, Taiwan, while protesting against Russia’s invasion.

(Chiang Ying-Ying / Associated Press)

Elbridge Colby, the nominee of Trump as a subdivision of the defense for policy, recently repeated the call to Taiwan to increase his defense issues in a confirmation hearing. But he also said that the US should concentrate on fighting the growing military influence of China, and that Taiwan’s losing to China “would be a disaster for American interests.”

“What can Taiwan learn from this?” Asked William Chih-Tung Chung, an assistant researcher at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research. “First does not clash with Trump.

Chung points out that this is not the first time that Taiwan has to do with losing American support. In 1979 the US breaking diplomatic ties with Taiwan while it was a closer relationship with China.

But the deterioration of relations between the US-China in the past decade has improved the importance of Taiwan, which he thinks will continue to play an important role as a defensive stronghold in the Asia-Pacific region and a leader in chip technology, a role that cannot be erased in the next four years.

“As long as the US maintains a negative attitude towards China, Taiwan remains a crucial negotiating contact for the US,” Chung said. “Of course there is a lot of uncertainty with Trump, and everyone is full of excitement.